This study measures regional impacts of adaptation to climate change for the Paris Agreement under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. We develop a global economic model with adaptation to climate change. Simulated results indicate that: 1) Asian and African adaptation costs exceed more than one percent of GDP in the year 2100 under the business as usual scenario; 2) adaptation costs under the 2.0°C target are higher in Asia and Africa than other regions; and 3) adaptation costs amount to one percent of GDP in Japan, EU and Latin America under the 1.5°C target scenario by adaptation.
References
[1]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[2]
van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E., O’Neill, B.C., Ebi, K.L., Riahi, K., Carter, T.R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R. and Winkler, H. (2014) A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario Matrix Architecture. Climatic Change, 122, 373-386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1
[3]
Hope, C., Anderson, J. and Wenman, P. (1993) Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect: An Application of the PAGE Model. Energy Policy, 21, 327-338.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0301-4215(93)90253-C
[4]
Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M.L. (1994) Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply. Nature, 367, 133-138. https://doi.org/10.1038/367133a0
[5]
de Bruin, K.C., Dellink, R.B. and Tol, R.J.S. (2009) AD-DICE: An Implementation of Adaptation in the DICE Model. Climatic Change, 95, 63-81.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9535-5
[6]
de Bruin, K.C., Dellink, R.B. and Agrawala, S. (2009) Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefits. OECD Environment Working Papers 6.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/economic-aspects-of-adaptation-to-climate-change_225282538105
[7]
Sakaue, S., Yamaura, K. and Washida, T. (2015) Regional and Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change under International Climate Agreements. International Journal of Global Warming, 8, 463-500. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2015.073051
[8]
(2015) The Human Choices to Climate Change Risk of Global Scale. Integrated Climate Assessment-Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS). (In Japanese)
http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/report/version1/index.html
[9]
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (2013) Shared Socio-Economic Pathway Database. SSP Database.
https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb
[10]
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (2013) Representative Concentration Pathways Database. RCP Database.
http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome
[11]
Nordhaus, W.D. (2010) Economic Aspects of Global Warming in a Post-Copenhagen Environment. PNAS, 107, 11721-11726.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1005985107
[12]
Hsiang, S.M. and Narita, D. (2012) Adaptation to Cyclone Risk: Evidence from the Global Cross-Section. Climate Change Economics, 3, Article ID: 1250011.
https://doi.org/10.1142/S201000781250011X
[13]
(2015) Adoption of the Paris Agreement. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf
