The principle aim of this work is to simulate the
invasion of two invasive mosquito species Aedes
aegypti and Aedes albopictus in
central Europe at a landscape scale. The spatial-temporal dynamics of invasion
is investigated in dependence of predation pressure, seasonal variation of
ambient temperature as well as human population density. The introduction of
temperature dependent entomological parameters enables the simulation of
seasonal pattern of population dynamics. The influence of temperature, predation
pressure and human population density on invasion is studied in one-dimensional
cases. In two dimensions, georeferenced parameters such as annual mean
temperature and human population density are prepared by a geographical
information system and introduced into the finite element tool COMSOL
Multiphysics. The results show that under the current temperature, central
Europe cannot become a permanent breeding region for Aedes aegypti. However, southwest Germany especially the regions
along the Upper Rhine Valley may provide suitable habitats for the permanent
establishment of Aedes albopictus. An
annual temperature rise of two degrees would lead to dramatic increase of
invasion speed and extension range of Aedes
albopictus.
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