Weather and climate extremes are part of the natural variability. However, the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes have increased in the globe following the global warming. Extreme precipitation impacts such as landslides and flooding with implications to vulnerability and adaptation are discussed for two regions of the state of S？o Paulo: the Metropolitan Region of Campinas and the Metropolitan Region of the Baixada Santista, located in southeastern South America. Simulations and projections obtained from four integrations of the Regional Eta model are analyzed to investigate the model behavior during the period of 1961-1990 and the projections within the period of 2011-2100. Uncertainties are discussed based on the standard deviation among the model spread. The projections show precipitation increase in the Metropolitan Region of Campinas during DJF for the near and distant future, while there are more uncertainties in the other seasons. In the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, the precipitation increase is projected to all seasons, except JJA, when there is higher uncertainty. Daily rainfall indices suggest an increase of precipitation during the rainy days, but a reduction in the number of rainy days in both locations. The projections show a reduction of light rains and an increase of heavy rains at both regions. The model identifies the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and frontal systems as precipitation patterns associated with extremes in the two locations. The results can be useful for adaptation actions, since the regions are highly populated and have high vulnerabilities.
References
[1]
Vincent, K. (2007) Uncertainty in Adaptive Capacity and the Importance of Scale. Global Environmental Change, 17, 12-24.
[2]
IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. In: Field, C.B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D.J., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S.K., Tignor, M. and Midgley, P.M., Eds., A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Field, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 582 p.
[3]
Turner, B.L., Kaspersonb, R.E., Matsone, P.A., McCarthyf, J.J., Corellg, R.W., Christensene, L., Eckleygh, N., Kasperson, J.X., Luerse, A., Martellog, M.L., Polsky, C., Pulsiphera, A. and Schiller, A. (2003) A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100, 8074-8079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100
[4]
Liebmann, B., Jones, C. and Carvalho, L.M.V. (2001) Interannual Variability of Daily Extreme Precipitation Events in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Journal of Climate, 14, 208-218. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0208:IVODEP>2.0.CO;2
[5]
Carvalho, L.M.V., Jones, C. and Liebmann, B. (2002) Extreme Precipitation Events in Southeastern South America and Large-Scale Convective Patterns in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Journal of Climate, 15, 2377-2394.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2377:EPEISS>2.0.CO;2
[6]
Marengo, J.A., Valverde, M.C. and Obregón, G.O. (2013) Observed and Projected Changes in Rainfall Extremes in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo. Climate Research, 57, 61-72. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01160
[7]
Silva Dias, M.A.F., Dias, J., Carvalho, L.M.V., Freitas, E.D. and Silva Dias, P.L. (2013) Changes in Extreme Dailyrainfall for São Paulo, Brazil. Climatic Change, 116, 705-722. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0504-7
[8]
Obregón, G.O., Marengo, J.A. and Nobre, C.A. (2014) Rainfall and Climate Variability: Long-Term Trends in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo in the 20th Century. Climate Research, 61, 93-107. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01241
[9]
Lima, K., Satyamurti, P. and Fernandez, J.P.R. (2010) Large-Scale Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Heavy Rainfall Episodes in Southeast Brazil. Theoretical Applied Climatology, 101, 121-135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0207-9
[10]
Vasconcellos, F.C. and Cavalcanti, I.F.A. (2010) Extreme Precipitation over Southeastern Brazil in the Austral Summer and Relations with the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11, 21-26.
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.247
[11]
Carvalho, L.M.V., Jones, C. and Liebmann, B. (2004) The South Atlantic Convergence Zone: Intensity, Form, Persistence, and Relationships with Intraseasonal to Interannual Activity and Extreme Rainfall. Journal of Climate, 17, 88-108.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0088:TSACZI>2.0.CO;2
[12]
Rusticucci, M., Marengo, J., Penalba, O. and Renom, M. (2010) An Intercomparison of Model-Simulated in Extreme Rainfall and Temperature Events during the Last Half of the XX Century: Part 1: Mean Values and Variability. Climatic Change, 98, 509-529. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9742-8
[13]
Marengo, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O. and Renom, M. (2010) An Intercomparison of Observed and Simulated Extreme Rainfall and Temperature Events during the Last Half of the Twentieth Century: Part 2: Historical Trends. Climatic Change, 98, 509-529. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7
[14]
Solman, S.A. and Pessacg, N.L. (2012) Evaluating Uncertainties in Regional Climate Simulations over South America at the Seasonal Scale. Climate Dynamics, 39, 59-76.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1219-6
[15]
Blazquez, J. and Nunez, M.N. (2013) Analysis of Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 Models. Climate Dynamics, 41, 1039-1056.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1489-7
[16]
Torres, R.R. and Marengo, J.A. (2013) Uncertainty Assessments of Climate Change Projections over South America. Theoretical Applied Climatology, 112, 253-272.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0718-7
[17]
Kodama, Y. (1992) Large Scale Common Features of Subtropical Precipitation Zones (The Baiu Frontal Zone, the SPCZ, and the SACZ) Part I: Characteristics of Subtropical Frontal Zones. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 70, 813-836.
[18]
Liebmann, B., Kiladis, G.N., Marengo, J.A., Ambrizzi, T. and Glick, J.D. (1999) Submonthly Convective Variability over South America and the South Atlantic Conver-gence Zone. Journal of Climate, 12, 1877-1891.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1877:SCVOSA>2.0.CO;2
[19]
Cunningham, C.A.C. and Cavalcanti, I.F.A. (2006) Intraseasonal Modes of Variability Affecting the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 1165-1180. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1309
[20]
Drumond, A., Marengo, J.A., Ambrizzi, T., Nieto, R., Moreira, L. and Gimeno, L. (2014) The Role of the Amazon Basin Moisture in the Atmospheric Branch of the Hydrological Cycle: A Lagrangian Analysis. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 18, 2577-2598. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2577-2014
[21]
Cavalcanti, I.F.A. (2012) Large Scale and Synoptic Features Associated with Extreme Precipitation over South America: A Review and Case Studies for the First Decade of the 21st Century. Atmospheric Research, 118, 27-40.
[22]
Chou, S.C., Marengo, J.A., Lyra, A.A., Sueiro, G., Pesquero, J.F., Alves, L.M., Kay, G., Betts, R., Chagas, D.J., Gomes, J.L., Bustamante, J.F. and Tavares, P. (2012) Downscaling of South America Present Climate Driven by 4-Member HadCM3 Runs. Climate Dynamics, 38, 635-653. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1002-8
[23]
Chou, S.C., Lyra, A., Mourão, C., Dereczynski, C., Pilotto, I., Gomes, J.L., Bustamante, J., Tavares, P., Silva, A., Rodrigues, D., Campos, D., Chagas, D., Sueiro, G., Siqueira, G., Nobre, P. and Marengo, J.A. (2014) Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global ClimateModels. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 438-454. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2014.35039
[24]
Chou, S.C., Lyra, A., Mourão, C., Dereczynski, C., Pilotto, I., Gomes, J.L., Bustamante, J., Tavares, P., Silva, A., Rodrigues, D., Campos, D., Chagas, D., Sueiro, G., Siqueira, G. and Marengo, J.A. (2014) Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 512-527. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2014.35043
[25]
Marengo, J.A., Chou, S.C., Kay, G., Alves, L.M., Pesquero, J.F., Soares, W.R., Santos, D.C., Lyra, A., Sueiro, G., Betts, R., Chagas, D.J., Gomes, J.L., Bustamante, J.F. and Tavares, P. (2012) Development of Regional Future Climate Change Scenarios in South America Using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 Climate Change Projections: Climatology and Regional Analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Parana River Basins. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1829-1848.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5
[26]
Collins, M., Tett, S.F.B. and Cooper, C. (2001) The Internal Climate Variability of a HadCM3, a Version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model without Flux Adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 17, 61-81. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000094
[27]
IPEA (2015) Atlas da Vulnerabilidade Social nos municípios brasileiros.
http://ivs.ipea.gov.br/ivs/
[28]
Castellano, M.S. and Nunes, L.H. (2011) Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Socio-Spatial Impacts on a Brazilian Urban Center: Campinas-SP. 6th European Conference on Severe Storms, 3-7 October 2011, Palma de Mallorca.
[29]
Vicente, A.K. and Nunes, L.H. (2004) Extreme Precipitation Events in Campinas, Brazil. Terrae Geosciences Geography and the Environment, 1, 60-63.
[30]
Nunes, L.H. and Fernandes, S.F. (2013) Impacts of Precipitation Episodes in Campinas, Brazil. UNISDR Scientific, Technical and Advisory Group Case Studies.
http://www.preventionweb.net/files/workspace/7935_nunesandfernandes.pdf
[31]
Martín-Vide, J. (2004) Spatial Distribution of Daily Precipitation Concentration Index in Peninsular Spain. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 959-971.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1030
[32]
Nunes, L.H., Martín-Vide, J. and Gabriel, G.H. (2013) Intense Precipitation Pattern by Means of Concentration Index (CI)-Examples of Two Brazilian Sites. European Conference on Severe Storms, Helsinki, 3-7 June 2013, 7.
[33]
Bhatta, B. (2010) Causes and Consequences of Urban Growth and Sprawl. In: Bhatta, B., Ed., Analysis of Urban Growth and Sprawl from Remote Sensing Data, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 17-36. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05299-6_2
[34]
Kitoh, A., Endo, H., Kumar, K., Cavalcanti, I.F.A., Goswami, P. and Zhou, T. (2013) Monsoons in a Changing World: A Regional Perspective in a Global Context. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 118, 3053-3065.
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50258
[35]
Nogués-Paegle, J. and Mo, K. (1997) Alternating Wet and Dry Conditions over South America during Summer. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 279-291.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0279:AWADCO>2.0.CO;2
[36]
Herdies, D., da Silva, A. and Silva Dias, M.A.F. (2002) The Bi-Modal Pattern of the Summertime Circulation over South America. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 107, 42-10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000997
[37]
Silva, A.E. and Carvalho, L.M.V. (2007) Large-Scale Index for South American Monsoon (LISAM). Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 51-57.
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.150
[38]
Gan, M.A., Rao, V.B. and Moscati, M.C. (2006) South American Monsoon Indices. Atmospheric Science Letters, 6, 219-223. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.119
[39]
Raia, A. and Cavalcanti, I.F.A. (2008) The Life Cycle of the South American Monsoon System. Journal of Climate, 21, 6227-6246.
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2249.1
[40]
Seth, A., Rojas, M. and Rauscher, S.A. (2010) CMIP3 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of the South American Monsoon. Climatic Change, 98, 331-357.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9736-6
