Three methods are considered in this paper: Simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best fit model was then used to forecast Zambia’s annual net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from 1970 to 2014. Foreign direct investment is foreign capital investment to Zambia. Throughout the paper the methods are illustrated using Zambia’s annual Net FDI inflows. A comparison of the three methods shows that the ARIMA (1, 1, 5) is the best fit model because it has the minimum error. Forecasting results give a gradual increase in annual net FDI inflows of about 44.36% by 2024. Forecasting results plays a vital role to policy makers. Decision making, coming up with good policies and suitable strategic plans, depends on accurate forecasts. Zambian FDI policy makers can use the results obtained in this study and create suitable strategic plans to promote FDI.
References
[1]
Fried, R. and George, A.C. (2014) Exponential and Holt-Winters Smoothing. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1353/paper_13.pdf
[2]
Chatfield, C. (1978) The Holt-Winters Forecasting Procedure. Applied Statistics, 27, 264-279. https://doi.org/10.2307/2347162
[3]
Box, G.E. and Jenkins, G.M. (1994) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs.
http://bookmarksland.com/download/time-series-analysis-forecasting-and-control-4th-edition-free.pdf
[4]
Fu, J. (2000) Institutions and Investments: Foreign Direct Investment in China during an Era of Reforms. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor.
https://www.press.umich.edu/16284/institutions_and_investments
https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.16284
[5]
Hayter, R. (1997, Ongoing) The Dynamics of Industrial Location: The Firm, the Factory and the Production System. Notes of the Book
[6]
Abdul Hasan, S. and Al-Samarrai, H. (1998) A Seminar on Foreign Investment Justification and Notification. Bayt al-Hikma, Baghdad.
http://www.ijmbs.com/Vol5/3/8-abhijit-biswas.pdf
[7]
Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J. and Lee, J.-W. (1998) How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0
[8]
Tybout, J.R. (2000) Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do and Why? Journal of Economic Literature, XXXVIII, 11-44.
https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.1.11
[9]
Markusen & Venables (1999) Foreign Direct Investment as a Catalyst for Industrial Development. European Economic Review, 43, 335-356.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00048-8
[10]
ZDA (2016) Zambia Development Agency, Lusaka, Zambia.
[11]
BOZ (2013) Bank of Zambia Annual Report, Lusaka, Zambia.
[12]
C.S.O. (2015) National Accounts. Statistical Bulletins, No. 2, 3, 5 and 7, Lusaka, Zambia.
[13]
Tularam, G.A. and Saeed, T. (2016) Oil-Price Forecasting Based on Various Univariate Time-Series Models. American Journal of Operations Research, 6, 226-235.
https://doi.org/10.4236/ajor.2016.63023
[14]
Siluyele, I. and Jere, S. (2016) Using Box-Jenkins Models to Forecast Mobile Cellular Subscription. Open Journal of Statistics, 6, 303-309.
https://doi.org/10.4236/ojs.2016.62026
[15]
Dobre, I. and Alexandru, A. (2008) Modelling Unemployment Rate Using Box-Jenkins Procedure. Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods, 3, 156-166.
[16]
Wei, W. (1990) A Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods. Addison Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., New York.