Climate changes are the main motivation for destruction of ecosystems; in fact the effects of these changes on biodiversity and ecosystems are considered as the most challenging cases in present century. Therefore, since the lakes are the most important services and functions of ecosystems, the effect of climate change on water level fluctuations of Tashk and Bakhtegan Lakes was analyzed as a natural ecosystem in this essay. For this purpose, the data related to six parameters of temperature, precipitation, evaporation, sunshine hours and snowy days were selected during 25-year statistical period (1985-2010), and Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trend of changes in each time series. Inflow system of the lake, the volume of evaporation and area of water were simulated and fluctuation of lake was also assessed by using dynamic analysis method and to achieve to lake level and analysis of its fluctuations in period under study, the satellite images of Landsat 7 and ETM 5-1 were used in two high waters of April 1987 and April 2010. Results indicate that the lake level has been dropped 6 meters in 2010 compared to the similar period of 1986; in wet years that the rainfall is more than 618/5 mm, high water level is the lake conditions in all months of the year; unlike in most years when rainfall occurred under average of 365.4 mm, lake is faced with dry condition that is mainly due to the reduce of icemaker area, rainfall reduction, increase in evaporation and temperature. These conditions show the extent to which the lake is fragile and affected by climatic conditions that the most obvious evidence of it is decline of genetic storages such as Tashk and Bakhtegan lakes and subsequently instability of the region and reducing of services and ecosystems’ functions.
References
[1]
Abdel-Fattah, S. and Krantzberg, G. (2014) A Review: Building the Resilience of Great Lakes Beneficial Uses to Climate Change. Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology, 3, 3-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.swaqe.2014.11.006
[2]
Baker, C., Lawrence, R.L., Montagne, C. and Patten, D. (2007) Change Detection of Wetland Ecosystems Using Landsat Imagery and Change Vector Analysis. Wetlands, 27, 610-619. https://doi.org/10.1672/0277-5212(2007)27[610:cdoweu]2.0.co;2
[3]
Bwangoy, J.R.B., Hansen, M.C., Roy, D.P., De Grandi, G. and Justice, C. O. (2010) Wetland Mapping in the Congo Basin Using Optical and Radar Remotely Sensed Data and Derived Topographical Indices. Remote Sensing of Environment, 114, 73-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.004
[4]
Haghighi, A.T. and Klove, B. (2015) A Sensitivity Analysis of Lake Water Level Response to Changes in Climate and River Regimes. Limnologica—Ecology and Man-agement of Inland Waters, 51, 118-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.limno.2015.02.001
[5]
International Joint Commission. (2012) Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty in Upper Great Lakes Water Levels. Final Report, 28.
[6]
Hui, F., Xu, B., Huang, H., Yu, Q. and Gong, P. (2008) Modelling Spatial-Temporal Change of Poyang Lake Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 29, 5767-5784. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160802060912
[7]
Hutti, B. and Nijagunappa, R. (2011) Applications of Geoinformatics in Water Resources Management of Semi-Arid Region, North Karnataka, India. International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences, 2, 373.
[8]
Johnson, T.D. and Belitz, K. (2012) A Remote Sensing Approach for Estimating the Location and Rate of Urban Irrigation in Semi-Arid Climates. Journal of Hydrology, 414, 86-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.016
[9]
Bartolai, A.M., He, L., Hurst, A.E., Mortsch, L., Paehlke, R. and Scavia, D. (2015) Climate Change as a Driver of Change in the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 41, 45-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.11.012
[10]
Finlayson, C.M., Davis, J.A., Gell, P.A., Kingsford, R.T. and Parton, K.A. (2013) The Status of Wetlands and the Predicted Effects of Global Climate Change: The Situation in Australia. Aquatic Sciences, 75, 73-93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-011-0232-5
[11]
Coops, H., Beklioglu, M. and Crisman, T.L. (2003) The Role of Water-Level Fluctuations in Shallow Lake Ecosystems—Workshop Conclusions. Hydrobiologia, 506, 23-27. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:HYDR.0000008595.14393.77
[12]
Haghighi, A.T., Marttila, H. and Klove, B. (2014) Development of a New Index to Assess River Regime Impacts after Dam Construction. Global and Planetary Change, 122, 186-196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.019
[13]
Yuan, Y., Zeng, G., Liang, J., Huang, L., Hua, S., Li, F., He, Y., et al. (2015) Variation of Water Level in Dongting Lake over a 50-Year Period: Implications for Impacts of Anthropogenic and Climatic Factors. Journal of Hydrology, 525, 450-456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.010
[14]
Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Stacke, T., et al. (2014) Global Water Resources Affected by Human Interventions and Climate Change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3251-3256. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222475110
[15]
Fernandes, L.F.S., dos Santos, C.M.M., Pereira, A.P. and Moura, J.P. (2011) Model of Management and Decision Support Systems in the Distribution of Water for Consumption: Case Study in North Portugal. European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering, 15, 411-426. https://doi.org/10.1080/19648189.2011.9693334
[16]
Santos, R.M.B., Fernandes, L.S., Moura, J.P., Pereira, M.G. and Pacheco, F.A.L. (2014) The Impact of Climate Change, Human Interference, Scale and Modeling Uncertainties on the Estimation of Aquifer Properties and River Flow Components. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 1297-1314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.001
[17]
Brooks, W.R. and Newbold, S.C. (2014) An Updated Biodiversity Nonuse Value Function for Use in Climate Change Integrated Assessment Models. Ecological Economics, 105, 342-349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.06.015
[18]
Pengra, B. (2012) The Drying of Iran’s Lake Urmia and Its Environmental Consequences. UNEP-GRID, Sioux Falls, UNEP Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS).
[19]
Hassan, A.A. and Jin, S. (2014) Lake Level Change and Total Water Discharge in East Africa Rift Valley from Satellite-Based Observations. Global and Planetary Change, 117, 79-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.03.005
[20]
Jin, S. and Feng, G. (2013) Large-Scale Variations of Global Groundwater from Satellite Gravimetry and Hydrological Models, 2002-2012. Global and Planetary Change, 106, 20-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.008
[21]
Moftakhari, H.R., Jay, D.A., Talke, S.A., Kukulka, T. and Bromirski, P.D. (2013) A Novel Approach to Flow Estimation in Tidal Rivers. Water Resources Research, 49, 4817-4832. https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20363
[22]
Muvundja, F.A., Wüest, A., Isumbisho, M., Kaningini, M.B., Pasche, N., Rinta, P. and Schmid, M. (2014) Modelling Lake Kivu Water Level Variations over Last Seven Decades. Limnologica—Ecology and Management of Inland Waters, 47, 21-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.limno.2014.02.003
[23]
Haghighi, A.T., Menberu, M.W., Aminnezhad, M., Marttila, H. and Klove, B. (2016) Can Lake Sensitivity to Desiccation Be Predicted from Lake Geometry? Journal of Hydrology, 539, 599-610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.064
[24]
Mitchell, R.J., Morecroft, M.D., Acreman, M., Crick, H.Q.P., Frost, M., Harley, M., Rehfisch, M.M., et al. (2007) England Biodiversity Strategy—Towards Adapation to Climate Change. Final Report to Defra for Contract CRO327.
[25]
Secretariat, C.B.D. (2009) Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change, Montreal. Convention on Biological Diversity Technical Series No. 41.
[26]
Maclean, I.M. and Wilson, R.J. (2011) Recent Ecological Responses to Climate Change Support Predictions of High Extinction Risk. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 12337-12342. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1017352108
[27]
Pereira, H.M., Leadley, P.W., Proença, V., Alkemade, R., Scharlemann, J.P., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F., Chini, L., et al. (2010) Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century. Science, 330, 1496-1501. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624
[28]
Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J. and Collingham, Y.C. (2004) Extinction Risk from Climate Change. Nature, 427, 145-148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121
[29]
Hoffmann, M., Hilton-Taylor, C., Angulo, A., Böhm, M., Brooks, T.M., Butchart, S.H., Darwall, W.R., et al. (2010) The Impact of Conservation on the status of the World’s Vertebrates. Science, 330, 1503-1509. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1194442
[30]
Fahrig, L. (2003) Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Biodiversity. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 34, 487-515. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132419
[31]
Fischer, J. and Lindenmayer, D.B. (2007) Landscape Modification and Habitat Fragmentation: A Synthesis. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 265-280. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00287.x
Heller, N.E. and Zavaleta, E.S. (2009) Biodiversity Management in the Face of Climate Change: A Review of 22 Years of Recommendations. Biological conservation, 142, 14-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.006
[34]
Barros, V.R., Field, C.B., Dokke, D.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.J., Bilir, T.E., Girma, B., et al. (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
[35]
Xu, J., Grumbine, R.E., Shrestha, A., Eriksson, M., Yang, X., Wang, Y.U.N. and Wilkes, A. (2009) The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods. Conservation Biology, 23, 520-530. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01237.x
[36]
Knutti, R. and Sedlácek, J. (2013) Robustness and Uncertainties in the New CMIP5 Climate Model Projections. Nature Climate Change, 3, 369-373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716
[37]
Chen, I.C., Shiu, H.J., Benedick, S., Holloway, J.D., Chey, V.K., Barlow, H.S., Thomas, C.D., et al. (2009) Elevation Increases in Moth Assemblages over 42 Years on a Tropical Mountain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 1479-1483. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809320106
[38]
Feeley, K.J. and Silman, M.R. (2010) Land-Use and Climate Change Effects on Population Size and Extinction Risk of Andean Plants. Global Change Biology, 16, 3215-3222. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02197.x
[39]
Fuhrer, J. (2003) Agroecosystem Responses to Combinations of Elevated CO2, Ozone, and Global Climate Change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 97, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(03)00125-7
[40]
Arsanjani, T.J., Javidan, R., Nazemosadat, M.J., Arsanjani, J.J. and Vaz, E. (2015) Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Bakhtegan Lake’s Areal Fluctuations and an Exploration of Its Future Status by Applying a Cellular Automata Model. Computers & Geosciences, 78, 37-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2015.02.004
[41]
Hesslerová, P. and Síma, M. (2010) Method for Detection of Small Water Bodies Developed for Purpose of Cage Fish Farming in Eastern Africa.
[42]
Arsanjani, J.J., Helbich, M. and Mousivand, A.J. (2014) A Morphological Approach to Predicting Urban Expansion. Transactions in GIS, 18, 219-233. https://doi.org/10.1111/tgis.12031
[43]
Kahl, U., Hülsmann, S., Radke, R.J. and Benndorf, J. (2008) The Impact of Water Level Fluctuations on the Year Class Strength of Roach: Implications for Fish Stock Management. Limnologica—Ecology and Management of Inland Waters, 38, 258-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.limno.2008.06.006
[44]
Erdinger, L., Hollert, H. and Eckl, P. (2011) Aral Sea: An Ecological Disaster Zone with Impact on Human Health. Encyclopedia of Environmental Health.
[45]
Glantz, M.H. (2007) Aral Sea Basin: A Sea Dies, a Sea Also Rises. Ambio, 36, 323-327. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[323:ASBASD]2.0.CO;2
[46]
Kamalov, Y. (2003) The Aral Sea: Problems, Legends, Solutions. Water Science and Technology, 48, 225-231.
[47]
Zavialov, P.O., Kostianoy, A.G., Emelianov, S.V., Ni, A.A., Ishniyazov, D., Khan, V.M. and Kudyshkin, T.V. (2003) Hydrographic Survey in the Dying Aral Sea. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1659-1662. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017427
[48]
Coe, M.T. and Foley, J.A. (2001) Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources of the Lake Chad Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 106, 3349-3356. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900587
[49]
Guganesharajah, K. and Shaw, E.M. (1984) Forecasting Water Levels for Lake Chad. Water Resources Research, 20, 1053-1065. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i008p01053
[50]
Bedford, D. (2009) The Great Salt Lake America’s Aral Sea? Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 51, 8-21. https://doi.org/10.3200/ENVT.51.5.8-21
[51]
Stephens, D.W. (1990) Changes in Lake Levels, Salinity and the Biological Community of Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA), 1847-1987. In: Comín, F.A. and Northcote, T.G., Eds., Saline Lakes, Springer, Berlin, 139-146. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0603-7_13
[52]
Khan, Q.J.A., Balakrishnan, E. and Al Harthi, A.H. (2013) Eco-Epidemiological Models of Salton Sea with Infected Prey. Journal of Biological Systems, 21, 1350003. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218339013500034
[53]
Paillisson, J.M. and Marion, L. (2011) Water Level Fluctuations for Managing Excessive Plant Biomass in Shallow Lakes. Ecological Engineering, 37, 241-247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2010.11.017
[54]
Mistry, V.V. and Conway, D. (2003) Remote Forcing of East African Rainfall and Relationships with Fluctuations in Levels of Lake Victoria. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 67-89. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.861
[55]
Guo, H., Jiang, T., Wang, G., Su, B. and Wang, Y. (2006) Observed Trends and Jumps of Climate Change over Lake Poyang Basin, China: 1961-2003. Journal of Lake Sciences, 18, 443-451. https://doi.org/10.18307/2006.0501
[56]
Mendoza, M.E., Bocco, G., Bravo, M., Granados, E.L. and Osterkamp, W.R. (2006) Predicting Water-Surface Fluctuation of Continental Lakes: A RS and GIS Based Approach in Central Mexico. Water Resources Management, 20, 291-311. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-8199-z
[57]
Ryner, M., Gasse, F., Rumes, B. and Verschuren, D. (2007) Climatic and Hydrological Instability in Semi-Arid Equatorial East Africa during the Late Glacial to Holocene Transition: A Multi-Proxy Reconstruction of Aquatic Ecosystem Response in Northern Tanzania. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 248, 440-458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.12.014
[58]
Motiee, H. and McBean, E. (2009) An Assessment of Long-Term Trends in Hydrologic Components and Implications for Water Levels in Lake Superior. Hydrology Research, 40, 564-579. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2009.061
[59]
Zilefac, E.A. (2010) Analysis of Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Water Balance of Lake Chad Drainage Basin.
[60]
Njaya, F., Snyder, K.A., Jamu, D., Wilson, J., Howard-Williams, C., Allison, E.H. and Andrew, N.L. (2011) The Natural History and Fisheries Ecology of Lake Chilwa, Southern Malawi. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 37, 15-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2010.09.008
[61]
Huang, S., Dahal, D., Young, C., Chander, G. and Liu, S. (2011) Integration of Palmer Drought Severity Index and Remote Sensing Data to Simulate Wetland Water Surface from 1910 to 2009 in Cottonwood Lake Area, North Dakota. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115, 3377-3389. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.08.002
[62]
Mekonnen, M.M., Hoekstra, A.Y. and Becht, R. (2012) Mitigating the Water Footprint of Export Cut Flowers from the Lake Naivasha Basin, Kenya. Water Resources Management, 26, 3725-3742. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0099-9
[63]
Zawiska, I., Slowiński, M., Correa-Metrio, A., Obremska, M., Luoto, T., Nevalainen, L., Milecka, K., et al. (2015) The Response of a Shallow Lake and Its Catchment to Late Glacial Climate Changes—A Case Study from Eastern Poland. Catena, 126, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.10.007
