The values of present to future rates in sea level
changes vary in an almost chaotic way. In view of the urgent need to handle
this question in a constructive way, we must anchor the issue in observational
facts, physical laws and long-term scientific experience. Doing so, we can put
a solid ultimate frame of any possible rise in sea level in the next centuries:
viz. 10.0 mm/yr or 1.0 m per century. If this is the ultimate possible rate,
the expected rate in the 21st century must be far less. The author’s
proposition is +5 cm ±15 cm by year 2100.
References
[1]
Morner, N.-A. (2011) Setting the Frames of Expected Future Sea Level Changes by Exploring Past Geological Sea Level Records. In: Easterbrook, D.J., Ed., Evidence-Based Climate Science, Chapter 6, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 185-196. https:/doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385956-3.10006-3
[2]
Morner, N.-A. (2013) Sea Level Changes: Past Records and Future Expectations. Energy & Environment, 24, 509-536. https:/doi.org/10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.509
[3]
Morner, N.-A. (2015) Glacial Isostasy: Regional—Not Global. International Journal of Geoseciences, 6, 577-592. https:/doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2015.66045
[4]
Cuffey, K.M. and Clow, G.D. (1997) Temperature, Accumulation and Ice Sheet Elevation in Central GREENLAND through the Last Deglacial Transition. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 26383-26396. https:/doi.org/10.1029/96JC03981
[5]
Easterbrook, D.J. (2011) Geological Evidence of Recurring Climate Cycles and Their Implications for the Cause of Global Climate Change—The Past Is the Key to the Future. In: Easterbrook, D.J., Ed., Evidence-Based Climate Science, Chapter 1, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 3-51.
[6]
Morner, N.-A. (1971) Eustatic Changes during the Last 20,000 Years and a Method of Separating the Isostatic and Eustatic Factors in an Uplifted Area. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 9, 153-181. https:/doi.org/10.1016/0031-0182(71)90030-7
[7]
Morner, N.-A. (1980) The Northwest European “Sea-Level Laboratory” and Regional Holocene Eustasy. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 29, 181-300.
[8]
UC, University of Colorado (2013) Sea Level Research Group of University of Colorado. http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
Parker, A. and Ollier, C.D. (2015) Sea Level Rise for India since the Start of Tide Gauge Records. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 8, 6483-6495. https:/doi.org/10.1007/s12517-014-1739-6
[11]
IPCC (2013) Fifth Assessment Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
