New Non-Invasive Index for Detecting Esophageal Varices in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Introduction: Many studies have shown that clinical, biochemical and ultrasonographic parameter are predictive of the presence and grading of esophageal varices. Aim of Study: Validation of a noninvasive test called P2/MS and its comparison with other noninvasive tests for the detection of high risk esophageal varices. Patients and Methods: We prospectively enrolled 125 consecutive patients with liver cirrhosis. Complete blood count [CBC], Platelet count by direct method, Liver functions [serum bilirubin, AST, ALT, prothrombin time and concentration and serum albumin], kidney functions, hepatitis markers for B & C, abdominal ultrasonography and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy were done for each patient. Calculation of P2/MS [Platelet count)²/{monocyte fraction (%) × segmented neutrophil fraction (%)], API [age-platelet index], APRI [AST-to-platelet ratio index], SPRI [spleen-to-platelet ratio index], ASPRI [age-spleen-to-platelet ratio index] scores and correlating the different scores with the grade of esophageal varices found on upper endoscopy. Results: During processing of our patient’s data, we found certain relation between segmented neutrophils, monocytes, platelet count, total bilirubin and the degree of esophageal varices for the detection of high risk varices and a new equation was formulated and we called it P2/MS-B. In predicting high risk esophageal varices HREV, the area under the curve for this new variable was [0.909, 95% confidence interval 0.858 - 0.961, p = 0.000] which was significantly higher than all the other variables including P2/MS for the detection of HREV. The sensitivity of the new equation for the detection of HREV is 85.3%, the specificity is 83.1%, the positive predictive value is 87.9%, the negative predicative value is 86.0 % and the overall accuracy of the test is 85.6%. Conclusion: A newly detected noninvasive variable for detecting HREV may reliably screen liver cirrhosis patients for HREV and avoid unnecessary endoscopy in low risk patients.