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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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气候变化对7种荒漠植物分布的潜在影响
DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1145.2010.00650, PP. 650-661
Keywords: 濒危植物,气候变化,荒漠,空间分布格局
Abstract:
利用cart（classificationandregressiontree，分类和回归树）生态位模型，采用a2和b2气候变化情景，模拟分析气候变化对密枝喀什菊、肉苁蓉、沙打旺、四合木、松叶猪毛菜、新疆贝母和伊贝母等濒危植物分布范围及空间格局的影响.结果显示：气候变化下，这些植物适宜分布范围较之目前缩小，到2081~2100年时段缩小80%以上；就新适宜及总适宜分布范围而言，密植喀什菊从1991~2020年到2051~2080年时段呈现增加趋势，之后呈现减小趋势，沙打旺从1991~2020年到2081~2100年时段呈现增加趋势，其它植物呈现减小趋势.气候变化下，6种植物目前适宜分布区中大部分区域将不再适宜，新适宜分布区将主要向昆仑山、柴达木盆地、祁连山西部、阿尔金山和帕米尔高原等高海拔区域扩展，沙打旺从2051~2080年到2081~2100年时段向东北高纬度区域扩展.气候变化下，这些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关性不一致，一些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关系数并不显著（p>0.0.5）；多数植物分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化多元回归关系较弱.结果说明，气候变化下，这些植物空间分布格局改变，目前适宜分布范围极大缩小，新适宜范围扩大.图2表7参67
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