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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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外来入侵假臭草在中国分布区的预测
DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1145.2011.00774, PP. 774-781
Keywords: garp模型,domain模型,入侵植物,假臭草,分布区预测,模型评价
Abstract:
假臭草原产南美洲，上世纪80年代首次记载传入中国，是潜在的恶性杂草.为提供其在中国分布区的预测资料，采用397个采集数据和已有的146个分布点数据，利用生态位模型（garp）和domain模型对分布区进行预测分析，并通过auc与maxkappa进行模型评价.结果显示：近十年，假臭草入侵记录增多，入侵扩散加剧；太阳辐射、水汽压、极端高温、霜日频率和水流方向对假臭草的分布限制较小，雨日频率、坡向、坡度、海拔、年降水、年均温、地形指数和极端低温等8个环境因子对其分布影响显著；入侵的主要植被类型是农田、灌木或草类覆盖嵌合区，常绿、落叶灌木地带，栽培植被及相关联地带等.模型评价表明两种模型预测能力为较好及以上，预测结果显示：假臭草在西藏（除东南小块区域）、新疆、青海、内蒙古、宁夏，陕西和山西北部地区，黑龙江、吉林、辽宁（除辽东半岛小块区域）是不宜生长区；最易入侵广东、广西、海南等地区，其中华中部分省份、华北平原为适生区，还未见有假臭草入侵的报道，相关部门应引起重视，严防入侵.图4表3参40
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