选取中国31省市1978―2012年面板数据,采用固定效应随机前沿模型,本文估计了农业生产率变化对中国粮食生产的贡献及对未来粮食安全的影响.研究发现:(1)在控制实际固定资本、农业机械总动力等要素投入和生产条件的影响后,农业全要素年均增长率仅为0.53%;(2)实际固定资本、农业机械总动力、农村用电量等工业投入的增加对粮食增产的影响,大约是农业技术进步影响的2.87倍;(3)未来20年内,保持现有要素变化率不变,如果农业全要素增长率增加23%,便可维持95%的粮食自给率.This paper employed the true fixed effect stochastic frontier model to investigate the effect of total factor productivity on the food production and food safety in China with the Panel Data of 31 provinces in 1978―2012. The empirical results showed that: the average total factor productivity growth rate was only 0.59% by controlling the influences of the real fixed capital stock and other product conditions; the effect of the industry input such as the fixed capital stock, machinery power and electricity on the agriculture output was three times more than the total factor productivity; with the current factor growth rate unchanged, if the total factor productivity increased 23%, the food self-sufficiency rate would retain 95% before 2020
