基于EEMD的我国入境旅游与经济增长的多尺度对比研究

正确认知入境旅游与经济发展及彼此关系的长期波动规律，对把握入境旅游业未来发展方向具有重要的理论与现实指导意义.本文运用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法，采用入境旅游（外汇）收入、入境旅游人数、GDP的月度序列数据，对我国入境旅游与经济增长及其关系的时间多尺度变化规律进行了研究.结果表明：（1）入境旅游收入、入境旅游人数、GDP以及入境旅游收入占GDP的比重经EEMD分解后均具有近似3、6、12个月的高频周期性波动特征，但高频波动在各要素总体变化中的贡献作用不尽相同.（2）入境旅游收入的持续快速增长是主要特征，其高频周期性波动不显著；入境旅游人数以高频周期性波动为主，未来呈现缓慢增长趋势.（3）GDP始终保持快速增长态势，周期性波动特征可忽略；而入境旅游收入占GDP比重的变化以高频周期性波动为主，辅以低频周期性波动，未来下降趋势显著.（4）要快速提高我国入境旅游收入，不能片面地吸引入境客源，促进旅游消费结构调整，提高入境旅游人均消费才是关键.
Thecorrectcognitionoflong-termfluctuationofChineseinboundtourism，economicgrowthandtheirrelationshiphasimportanttheoreticalandpracticalsignificanceonfutureinboundtourismdevelopment.Thispapercollectedmonthlydataofforeignexchangerevenueofinboundtourism，inboundtouristarrivals，GDPandtheinboundtourismrevenue′sshareofGDPfromJanuaryin2000toDecemberin2014，basedonwhichthemulti-timescalefluctuationofinboundtourism，economicgrowthandtheirrelationshipwerestudiedthroughthemethodofensembleempiricalmode?decomposition（EEMD）.Theresultsshowedthat：（1）Thehighfrequencyfluctuationwithperiodsofapproximate3，6，12monthsaredecomposedfromlong-termtimeseriesofinboundtourismrevenue，inboundtouristarrivals，GDPandtheinboundtourismrevenue′sshareofGDP，whilethecontributionofhighfrequencyfluctuationvarywidelyineverydataseries.（2）Thesustainedrapidgrowthisthemainchangecharacteristicsindataseriesofinboundtourismrevenue，whilethehighfrequencyfluctuationinalltimescaleisthemainchangefeatureininboundtouristarrivals.（3）GDPhasalwaysmaintainedamomentumofrapidgrowth，theperiodicfluctuationcanbeignoredduetotwosmallvariancecontribution.Theinboundtourismrevenue′sshareofGDPhasthemainperiodicfluctuationfeaturewithhighfrequency，supplementedbythelowfrequencyfluctuation，andshowsadiscernibledeclinetrendinthefuture.（4）Tourismconsumptionstructureadjustmentandper-capitaconsumptionenhancementarethekeystoimproveChineseinboundtourismincome