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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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基于地理加权泊松模型的河南省火灾风险模拟
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2015.05.015, PP. 93-98
Keywords: 火险模拟,地理加权泊松模型,局部拟合,河南省
Abstract:
火灾风险模拟是探究火灾风险机制和揭示影响火灾主要因素的重要途径。使用可解释火灾及其影响因素间局部变异关系的地理加权泊松模型为建模工具,选取坡度、人类活动可达性、太阳辐射、地表温度、植被状态等火环境因素,对河南省2002―2012年的火灾风险进行空间模拟,并分别从可靠性和区分能力两方面对模型进行检验。结果表明:①与广义泊松模型相比,地理加权泊松模型的模拟精度和模型性能均显著提高;②人类活动可达性对火灾的影响在河南省内未呈现显著空间变化,地形、太阳辐射、地表温度和植被状态对火灾影响在河南省内表现出显著空间变化,邻近居民区和远离主要道路的区域更易发生火灾;③火灾影响因素的估计系数图可用于防火管理。
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