为了全面分析安徽省土地利用类型变化对生态系统服务价值的影响,以安徽省土地利用动态数据为基础,参考Costanza的生态系统服务价值计算方法,采用安徽省生态系统单位面积生态服务价值系数,计算了安徽省和五大自然区域的2000、2005及2010年生态系统服务价值,并建立灰色预测模型,对其发展趋势作了预测分析。结果表明:近10 a安徽省生态服务价值变化大致呈一个倒“V”形,2000―2005年,生态价值增加了154.69亿元, 2005―2010年,生态价值减少了25.31亿元; 利用2010―2020年土地利用类型预测结果,计算出了预测期生态系统服务总价值的变化情况,生态价值降由2010年的2 497.30亿元将下到2020年的2 348.65亿元,下降幅度为5.96%。近10年,随着耕地和草地的大规模减少及建设用地的逐年增加,造成了严峻的生态压力和生态服务价值下降的趋势。基于此,应及时调整和优化土地利用结构,制定动态的生态补偿制度,同时控制人口的合理增长,以实现安徽省经济社会生态可持续发展。In order to analyze the effects of the change of land use type on ecosystem service value in Anhui Province, the ecological service value of Anhui province and five natural areas was calculated in 2000,2005 and 2010 based on dynamic data of the land use of Anhui province. Costanza calculation method of the ecosystem services value was used as reference. And coefficient of per unit area ecosystem service value of ecological system in Anhui was adopted.Grey forecasting model was established to predict the developmental trend of ecosystem services value. The results showed that the change of ecological service value was roughly an inverted “V” type in recent 10 years in Anhui Province. The ecological value had increased by 15 469 billion yuan from 2000 to 2005, but it had decreased by 2 531 billion yuan from 2005 to 2010. Using the prediction results of land use type to calculate the change of ecosystem service value from 2010 to 2020, it will decline from 249 730 billion yuan in 2010 to 234 865 billion yuan in 2020, with a drop of 5.96%.With the mass decrease of cultivated land and grassland, and the annual increase of construction land, the ecological pressure had become heavier and ecosystem service value tended to fall in recent ten years. In order to build a good ecological environment for sustainable and harmonious development of Anhui Province, we should adjust and optimize the land use structure,establish a dynamic ecological compensation mechanism and keep a reasonable population growth
