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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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有效的社会媒体热点话题传播模型研究
DOI: 10.13232/j.cnki.j nju.2015.01.026, PP. 187-196
Keywords: 热点话题,时间序列,传染病模型,传播模型
Abstract:
交互式社会媒体上的热点话题具有巨大的影响力,对热点话题进行建模和预测是一个非常重要但困难的问题.针对话题参与用户的特点进行了分析,构建了用户活跃度以及用户重入概率等模型的合理假设条件.根据话题发展模式和基于用户参与话题概率构建了单峰模型和多峰模型.分别基于两个不同数据集对模型进行了拟合和预测试验,试验结果表明,本文提出的模型在拟合与预测话题的发展趋势上的效果都优于spikem模型,尤其是对具有复杂波动发展模式的话题,本文提出的模型能很好地拟合与预测话题的波动.
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