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地球学报  2009 

我国油气储量、产量增长趋势影响因素分析

DOI: 10.3975/cagsb.2009.06.18

Keywords: 油气资源,储量、产量,增长趋势,影响因素,圈闭类型

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Abstract:

影响油气储量的增长趋势的影响因素很多,不同类型盆地油气储量、产量增长规律差别也较大。充分认识影响储量、产量增长的各方面因素,对合理预测我国油气储量产量增长趋势,判断油气储量、产量增长领域,确定盆地在目前和未来一段时期内的主要勘探目标等都有重要意义。目前,对影响油气储量、产量增长因素的认识还存在不同看法,部分因素没有得到充分考虑,系统分析还需要进一步加强。本文通过分析,将影响油气储量、产量增长趋势的影响因素归纳为三方面:在地质方面,油气资源潜力和资源分布的集中程度,盆地圈闭发育特点直接影响勘探进程和储量增长:资源潜力大、分布集中、圈闭发育均衡的盆地勘探进展快,储量增长具有典型的双峰特点;资源分布层位多的叠合盆地储量增长具有多峰特征等。在理论技术方面,陆相成油理论打开了我国陆相盆地勘探领域,出现我国第一个储量增长高峰,岩性、地层成藏理论的成熟带来了我国储量第二个增长高峰;地震技术、钻井技术、测井、测试技术和采油等勘探开发技术的进步,不断拓展勘探领域,勘探开发由正向构造扩展到凹陷,由中浅层扩展到深层,由陆地扩展到海洋,由平原、丘陵扩展到山地、沙漠和滩海。油气需求和价格等直接影响勘探投入和储量发现。各种因素的作用方式和程度不同,油气储量、产量增长特征是在各因素的综合作用下的结果。通过系统分析,充分认识影响储量、产量增长的各方面因素,可为合理预测我国油气储量、产量增长趋势,判断油气储量、产量增长领域提供基础依据。

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