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地球学报  2010 

基于“S”规律的中国钢需求预测

DOI: 10.3975/cagsb.2010.05.05

Keywords: 钢需求,“S”形规律,预测指标,需求预测

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Abstract:

本文基于人均钢消费量与人均GDP“S”形规律,对典型发达国家工业化过程钢消费量峰值年份进行截面分析,并依据我国经济增长发展目标厘定高、参考及低三种方案,解析中国未来钢需求,结论是:按高增长方案,我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2015年到达,届时人均钢消费量480~500千克,消费总量6.7~7亿吨;按参考方案,我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2015-2016年到达,届时人均钢消费量430~470千克,消费总量为6~6.5亿吨;按低增长方案,我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2017-2018年到达,届时人均钢消费量400~440千克,消费总量为5.6~6.1亿吨。

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