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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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中国重要矿产资源的需求预测
Keywords: 矿产资源消费量,人均消费量,人均GDP,消费预测,中国
Abstract:
以往对矿产资源的中长期需求预测，大都基于纯数学模型或情景分析对已有数据的经验外推。由于缺乏对工业化过程矿产资源消费需求基本规律的把握，预测结果几乎无一例外地存在巨大偏差。笔者在深入分析工业化经济增长与矿产资源消费需求的相关关系、基本规律和模式的基础上，探讨了工业化过程中矿产资源消费从怎样的初始值通过什么样的方式到达多高的峰值，进而提取经济增长与矿产资源消费需求的模式参数，预测了中国未来30a能源、钢、铜、铝、锌的消费需求。
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