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太湖流域营养盐产量演变和趋势的数值模拟研究

, PP. 667-673

Keywords: 太湖流域,营养盐,数值模拟,自然本底,入湖产量,增加趋势

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Abstract:

认识流域湖泊水体富营养化的演变和趋势是湖泊污染控制和治理中的重要研究课题。本文将在分析和论证太湖流域营养盐自然本底、人类活动作用急剧增加的近50年来太湖流域营养盐的变化情况、以及全球气候变化和流域经济发展未来30年太湖流域营养盐变化趋势等三方面的基础上,对太湖流域营养盐产量变化做出评估和预测。研究表明,在未来气候变化概率分析和区域经济发展规划基础上,太湖流域未来30年营养盐流域产量将比现代(2000s)增加25%~33%,这将增大太湖水体污染的压力。

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