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利用树木年轮宽度资料重建川西米亚罗地区过去200年夏季温度的变化

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2011.03.16, PP. 522-534

Keywords: 温度重建,树木年轮,米亚罗,川西高原

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Abstract:

利用川西高原米亚罗地区林线位置高山柏(Sabinasquamata)的年轮宽度资料,分析了树轮年表和气候要素的关系。通过相关和响应函数分析得出,树木径向生长对于夏季(6~7月)温度响应最为敏感,上年冬季到早春(12~3月)温度也对树木生长有一定的影响,而年表与降雨没有明显的关系。最终利用树轮年表重建了该地区过去200年(1810~2009年)的夏季(6~7月)平均温度的波动历史,重建方程的方差解释量为43.2%(调整自由度后为41.9%)。重建温度序列的平均值为12.49℃,标准差为0.515℃,其波动特征大致可以分为3个阶段:1850年以前的寒冷时期、1850~1950年的温暖时期以及1950年以后的温度平缓波动时期。重建序列最为寒冷的时期为1810~1830年,其中1824~1825年为最寒冷的年份;重建序列最为温暖的时期是发生在19世纪下半叶(1850~1903年)和20世纪上半叶(1911~1950年),其中1863年和1925年是最温暖的年份。重建温度序列的主要冷期和暖期与周围地区其他对于温度响应敏感的树木年轮和冰芯材料以及冰川进退记录均有较好的对应关系,这表明本研究的重建序列较为可靠,是可以指示研究地区过去温度波动历史的。

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