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1880年以来的全球升温趋势探究

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2011.01.09, PP. 66-72

Keywords: 气候变化,全球升温,减排,遗传算法

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Abstract:

由于导致全球温度异常的因素的多样性,使得至21世纪末全球温度是否将持续上升存在较大的不确定性。文章基于新兴的非数值算法的遗传算法,对1880~2009年全球温度异常数据,做了驱动因子挖掘,将全球温度异常分解为人类活动的碳排放造成的温度波动和全球气候系统自然振动的温度波动两部分。研究发现,当前全球气候系统存在持续变暖的趋势,至2100年,全球温度将上升约1.84~2.11℃。然而这个趋势叠加了由于全球气候系统周期性振动造成的周期性冷相位,表现出局部时段全球温度的平稳或下降,并分别发生于2005~2030年和2071~2085年前后,冷相位的持续时间呈缩短趋势。

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