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树轮记录的川西高原北部过去325年7~8月平均气温变化

DOI: 10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2015.05.09, PP. 1134-1144

Keywords: 树木年轮,川西高原,气候变化,平均气温

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Abstract:

利用采自川西高原北部地区的2个采样点的树轮样本,建立了该区域树轮宽度标准化年表。通过与气候要素的分析发现,该地区树木径向生长主要受到温度的限制,树轮年表与7~8月平均气温相关较好(r=0.74)。由此重建了川西高原北部地区325年以来的7~8月平均气温变化,重建方程稳定可靠,方差解释量为54.6%。重建结果显示,在过去的325年中(1686~2010年),该地区先后经历了6个偏冷时段(1691~1704年、1768~1797年、1837~1852年、1888~1898年、1907~1932年和1963~1996年)和6个偏暖时段(1705~1767年、1798~1814年、1823~1836年、1853~1866年、1874~1887年和1950~1962年),其中1705~1767年是持续时间最长的暖期,持续时间为63a,其年平均气温比多年平均气温偏高0.54℃;在偏冷时段中,1963~1996年是持续时间最长的冷期,持续时间为34a,其年平均气温比多年平均气温偏低0.48℃。通过时空相关性分析,表明重建序列具有较好的时空代表性。此外,重建结果与海螺沟冰川末端变化表现出很好的契合度,例如,20世纪初至30年代为冰川相对稳定或前进阶段,重建序列表现为一段偏冷期(1907~1932年);与周边邻近地区研究结果对比分析中发现,重建结果与其他研究结果具有很好的一致性,例如,重建的长江源区玉树的夏季(6~8月)平均最低气温序列、重建的松潘地区年平均气温序列与重建序列较好的体现了20世纪80年代以来有一个显著的升温趋势、20世纪10~30年代的低温时期、20世纪50年代至60年代的高温时期、18世纪70年代至90年代的高温时期;气象灾害文献记录中的极端事件(如雪灾、冻害、干旱等)也能印证本文的重建结果,例如,20世纪60~90年代初,历史记录显示该区域是一个大范围的雪灾多发区,阿坝州境内的阿坝县、松潘县、若尔盖县等连续多年雪灾、霜冻,造成大量农作物减产甚至死亡,大量牲畜死亡,给农牧业带来严重损失。

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