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树轮晚材最大密度记录的青藏高原东北部公元1725年以来5~8月温度变化

DOI: 10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2015.05.07, PP. 1112-1120

Keywords: 藏东北玛曲,岷江冷杉(Abiesfaxoniana),晚材最大密度,温度重建,海温

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Abstract:

利用采自尕海-则岔自然保护区的岷江冷杉树轮样本,建立树轮晚材最大密度年表。通过相关分析发现,研究区岷江冷杉树轮晚材最大密度与暖季(5~8月)温度变化存在显著正相关关系。其中,与5~8月平均最高温度(1967~2008年)的相关最高(r=0.635,p<0.001)。在此基础上,利用树轮晚材最大密度重建了藏东北玛曲地区过去284年来的5~8月平均最高温度变化,重建方程稳定可靠,重建方程的方差解释量为40.4%(Radj2=38.9%,N=42,F=27.09)。重建结果显示,在过去的284年中玛曲地区5~8月平均最高温度的异常高温年份为38年,异常低温年份为42年,且存在5个温度偏低时段(1725~1746年、1769~1819年、1834~1845年、1857~1869年和1965~1988年)和5个温度偏高时段(1747~1758年、1820~1833年、1846~1856年、1870~1964年和1989~2008年)。通过对比分析,发现玛曲温度重建序列与昌都温度重建序列具有良好的同步性,它们之间的第一主成分序列能够准确指示公元1725年以来青藏高原东部大范围暖季温度变化。在与海温数据的公共时段内(1854~2000年),青藏高原东部两个温度序列的第一主成分序列和海温场的相关分析显示,北印度洋孟加拉湾和西太平洋中低纬度的海温对于青藏高原东部暖季温度变化影响显著;同时,青藏高原东部地区暖季温度与中东太平洋海温的负相关说明其变化还可能受到ENSO影响,研究还发现青藏高原东部地区暖季温度与印度夏季风存在关联。

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