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藏东南树木年轮记载的公元1560年以来的极端干旱事件

DOI: 10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2015.05.05, PP. 1093-1101

Keywords: 青藏高原,树木年轮,SPEI,极端干旱事件

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Abstract:

青藏高原的极端干旱事件会导致高原内部河流的水文异常,进而对流域内的农业生产和人类生活产生巨大影响。然而,干旱事件发生的时空规律及其与全球变化的关系尚不明确。气象器测资料相对较短是极端干旱事件研究中的一个重要限制因素。本文利用西藏昌都地区3个采样点(马秀、热玉和腊久)的大果圆柏(SabinatibeticaKom.)树轮宽度数据,分析了自1560年以来该区域极端干旱事件发生的特征。分析结果表明,树轮宽度可指示5~8月标准化降水蒸散指数(StandardizedPrecipitation-EvapotranspirationIndex,简称SPEI),3个采样点树轮年表20世纪共同的极低生长年份(1972年、1984年和1995年)与藏东南地区20世纪的区域干旱事件一致(1954~2006年);在过去447年间(1560~2006年),3个采样点共同的极端干旱事件发生最频繁的时期为1650~1700年间,多达6次/50年,发生最少的时期有1600~1650年、1800~1850年和1950~2000年,每50年仅有1次;在20世纪,极端干旱事件的发生频率低于历史上的平均值。极端干旱发生最频繁的1650~1700年对应于太阳活动较弱的蒙德极小期(MaunderMinimum)。研究结果有助于进一步认识青藏高原极端干旱事件的发生规律及其与全球气候变化的关系。

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