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基于树木年轮重建伊春1790年以来2~3月最低温度变化

DOI: 10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2015.05.13, PP. 1175-1184

Keywords: 伊春,树木年轮,气候变化,温度重建,水曲柳,小兴安岭

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Abstract:

小兴安岭地区是我国最为典型的原始阔叶红松(PinuskoraiensisSieb.etZucc.)林分布区,也是受全球气候变化影响最为显著的区域之一。长时期高分辨率气候记录是理解该区过去气候变化规律的最基础资料,然而由于器测气候数据时间较短,亟须获得长时间尺度的代理气候记录。本研究用树木年轮气候学方法,分析伊春典型阔叶红松林内水曲柳(FraxinusmandshuricaRupr.)径向生长与气候要素的关系,结果表明:水曲柳径向生长与温度相关性较好,尤其是前一年及当年冬季最低温度,与前一年及当年2~3月的最低温均达到了极显著水平(p<0.01),而与降水相关性较差,休眠期(冬季)温度与生长季(早春、夏秋)温度一样均对北半球高纬度地区落叶阔叶树水曲柳的径向生长有明显的促进作用,冬季水曲柳树体内各种生理生化活动及外界复杂的生物地球化学过程可能对水曲柳生长季的径向生长至关重要。基于年轮指数与前一年2~3月平均最低温度的高相关性(r=0.71,p<0.01),利用线性回归模型重建了伊春1790年以来2~3月最低温度变化。重建方程解释了51.0%的低温变化,经分段法、自助法(Bootstrap)和刀切法(Jackknife)检验,证明该方程稳定可靠。重建序列显示,伊春过去221年中存在7个偏冷期(1790~1791年、1795~1819年、1834~1841年、1851~1854年、1898~1899年、1901~1907年和1959~1982年)和4个偏暖期(1822~1831年、1872~1886年、1923~1955年和1988~2010年),其他时段温度在均值附近波动,变化较小。伊春冷暖变化存在4.8~4.9年和18.3年的极显著周期(p<0.01),温度的周期变化可能与太阳活动、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)以及太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)有关。

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