Parry M L, Canziani O F,Palutikof J P et al.In Climate Change 2007: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability,Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.In: IPCC.Summary for Policymakers.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007.7~22
[2]
Oerlemans J. Extracting a climate signal from 169 Glacier records.Science,2005, 308 :675~677
[3]
Zemp M, Haeberli W,Hoelze M et al.Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades?Geophysical Research Letters,2006, 33 (13): L13504,doi: 10.1029/2006GL026319
[4]
Ding Yongjian, Liu Shiyin,Li Jing et al.The retreat of glaciers in response to recent climate warming in Western China.Annals of Glaciology,2006, 43 (1):97~105
[5]
Casassa G, L’opez P,Pouyaud B et al.Detection of changes in glacial run-off in Alpine Basins: Examples from North America,the Alps,Central Asia and the Andes.Hydrological Process,2009, 23 (1):31~41
[6]
Ye B, Yang D,Zhang T et al.Hydrological process change with air temperature over the Lena Basin in Siberia,cold region hydrology in a changing climate.In: Proceedings of Symposium H02 Held during IUGG2011.Melbourne: IAHS Publication,July 2011, 346 :33~38
[7]
Hock R, Jansson P,Braun L N.Modelling the response of mountain glacier discharge to climate warming.In: Huber U M,Bugmann H K M,Reasoner M A eds.In: Global Change and Mountain Regions (A State of Knowledge Overview).Springer: Dordrecht,2005.243~252
[8]
Ye Baisheng, Ding Yongjian,Liu Fengjing.Responses of various scale mountain valley glaciers and corresponding runoffs to climatic change.Journal of Glaciology,2003, 49 (164):1~7
Shen Yongping,Wang Guoya,Su Hongchao et al.Hydrological processes responding to climate warming in the upper reaches of Kelan River Basin with snow-dominated of the Altay Mountains region,Xinjiang,China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2007, 29 (6):845~854
[11]
Dye D G. Variability and trends in the annual snow-cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere land areas,1972~2000.Hydrological Process,2002, 16 (15):3065~3077
[12]
Ye Baisheng, Daqing Yang,Zhongliang Zhang et al.Variation of hydrological regime with permafrost coverage over Lena Basin in Siberia.Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2009, 114 : D07102,doi: 10.1029/2008JD010537
[13]
Woo K, D Kane,S Carey et al.Progress in permafrost hydrology in the New Millennium.Permafrost and Periglacial Processes,2008, 19 (2):237~254
[14]
Hinzman L D, Bettez N D,Bolton W R et al.Evidence and implications of recent climate change in terrestrial regions of the Arctic.Climatic Change,2005, 72 (3):251~298
Shi Yafeng.Climate and Sea Level Changes,Impacts and Trend in China,Fourth: Study of the Impacts on Climate Change to the Water Resources in the Northwest and North in China.Jinan: Shangdong Science and Technology Press,1995.15~310
[17]
赖祖铭.西北地区河川年径流量变差系数的研究.冰川冻土,1981, 3 (1):38~42
[18]
Lai Zuming.Study of the deviation coefficient of annual runoff of the rivers in North West China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1981, 3 (1):38~42
Jiao Keqin,Ye Baisheng,Han Tianding et al.Response of runoff to climate change in the glacier No.1 at the headwater of ürümqi River,Tianshan Mountains during 1980~2006.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011, 33 (3):606~611
[21]
Li Zhongqin, Wang Wenbin,Zhang Mingjun et al.Observed changes in streamflow at the headwaters of the ürümqi River,eastern Tianshan,Central Asia.Hydrological Processes,2010, 24 (2):217~224
[22]
Ye Baisheng, Yang Daqing, Jiao Keqin et al. The ürümqi River source Glacier No.1, Tianshen, China: Changes over the past 45 years. Geophysical Research Letter,2005, 32,L21504,doi:10.1029/2005GL024178
Song Gaoju,Wang Ninglian,Chen Liang et al.Analysis of the recent features of the meltwater runoff from the Qiyi Glacier,Qilian Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008, 30 (2):322~328
[25]
Gao Hongkai, He Xiaobo,Ye Baisheng et al.Modelling the runoff and glacier mass balance during 1955~2008 in a small watershed on the central Tibetan Plateau,China.Hydrological Processes,2011,doi: 10.1002/hyp.8256
Gao Xin,Zhang Shiqiang,Ye Baisheng et al.Recent changes of glacier runoff in the Hexi Inland river basin.Advances in Water Science,2011, 22 (3):342~350
[28]
姚檀栋.青藏高原南部冰川变化及其对湖泊的影响.科学通报,2010, 55 (18):1749
[29]
Yao Tandong.Glacier variation and impacts on lakes on the south of Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Science Bulletin,2010, 55 (18):1749
Chen Feng,Kang Shichang,Zhang Yongjun et al.Glacier and lake change in response to climate change in the Nam Co Basin,Tibet.Journal of Mountain Science,2009, 27 (6):641~647
Gao Xin, Ye Baisheng,Zhang Shiqiang et al.Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961~2006 in the Tarim River Basin,China.Science in China(Series D),2010, 53 (6):880~891
[37]
Zhang Yong, Liu Shiyin,Xie Changwei et al.Application of a degree-day model for the determination of contributions to glacier meltwater and runoff near Keqicar Baqi Glacier,south west Tianshan Mountains.Annals of Glaciology,2006, 43 (1):280~284
[38]
Liu Shiyin, Zhang Yong,Zhang Yingsong et al.Estimation of glacier runoff and future trends in the Yangtze River source region,China.Journal of Glaciology,2009, 55 (190):353~362
[39]
Shen Yongping,Wang Guoya,Ding Yongjian et al.Changes in Merzbacher Lake of Inylchek Glacier and glacier flash floods in Aksu River Basin,Tianshan during the period of 1903~2009.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2009, 31 (6):993~1002
Wang Di,Liu Jingshi,Hu Linjin et al.Monitoring and analyzing the glacier lake outburst floods and glacier variation in the upper Yarkant River,Karakoram.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2009, 31 (5):808~814
Zhang Pu,Wang Jian,Liu Yan et al.Application of SRM to flood forecast and forwarning of Manasi River Basin in Spring.Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2009, 24 (4):457~461
[44]
Zhao Qiudong, Liu Z,Ye Baisheng et al.A snowmelt runoff forecasting model coupling WRF and DHSVM.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2009, 13 (10):1897~1906
Wang Jian,Li Shuo.Effect of climatic change on snowmelt runoffs in mountainous regions of inland rivers in North western China.Science in China(Series D),2006, 49 (8): 881~888,doi: 10.1007/s11430-006-0881-8
Wang Jian,Shen Yongping,Lu Anxin et al.Impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in the mountainous regions of North West China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2001, 23 (1):28~33
[49]
Liu Junfeng,Yang Jianping,Chen Rensheng et al.The simulation of snowmelt runoff model in the Dongkemadi River Basin,headwater of the Yangtze River.Acta Geographica Sinica,2006, 61 (11):1149~1159
Wang Guoqing,Zhang Jianzhong,Ma Jirang.A study of sonwmelt runoff model and application,Tangnaihai Station in Yellow River.Water Resources and Water Engineering,1997, 8 (2):60~64
[52]
Liu Wen,Li Zhilu,Li Kangbin.Application study of SRM snowmelt runoff model in Tashikuergan River Basin.Technical Supervision in Water Resources,2007,(3):43~46
[53]
Ma Hong, Chen Guodong.A test of snowmelt runoff model(SRM)for the Gongnaisi River Basin in the western Tianshan Mountains,China.Chinese Science Bulletin,2003, 48 (19):2088~2093
[54]
Zhu Zhichao,Wu Sufen,Han Ping et al.Application of snowmelt and precipitation runoff model to the daily runoff forecast.Xing Jiang Water Resources,2005,(6):13~36
[55]
Li Xingong, Mark W Williams.Snowmelt runoff modeling in an arid mountain watershed,Tarim Basin,China. Hydrological Processes,2008, 22 (19):3931~3940
[56]
Hock R. A distributed temperature-index ice- and snowmelt model including potential direct solar radiation.Journal of Glaciology,1999, 45 (149):101~111
[57]
Peterson B, Holmes J R M,McClelland J W et al.Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean.Science, 2002, 298 :2171~2173
[58]
Yang D, Kane D,Hinzman L et al.Siberian Lena River hydrologic regime and recent change. Journal of Geophysical Research,2002, 107 (D23): 4694,doi: 1029/2002JD002542
[59]
McClelland J W, Holmes R M,Peterson B J et al.Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams,permafrost thaw,and fires as potential agents of change.Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2004, 109 (D18),D18102,doi: 10.1029/2004JD004583
Huang Yuying,Liu Jingshi,Shang Sichen et al.Study on monthly runoff volume in winter,frozen earth and climate change in the Keriya River Basin in the Kunlun Mountains.Arid Zone Research,2008, 25 (2):174~178
Gong Tongliang,Liu Changming,Liu Jingshi.Hydrological response of Lhasa River to climate change and permafrost degradation in Xizang.Acta Geographica Sinica,2006, 61 (5):519~526
[64]
Liu J, Hayakawab N,Lu M J et al.Hydrological and geocryological response of winter streamflow to climate warming in North East China.Cold Regions Science and Technology,2003, 37 (1):15~24
Liu Jingshi,Wei Wenshou,Huang Yuying et al.Hydrological response of winter streamflow to climate change and permafrost degradation in Manas watershed,Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006, 28 (5):656~662
[67]
Niu Li, Ye Baisheng,Li Jing et al.Effect of permafrost degradation on hydrological processes in typical basins with various permafrost coverage in western China.Science in China(Series D),2011, 54 (4):615~624