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历史气候变化影响研究中的社会经济等级序列重建方法探讨

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2014.06.09, PP. 1204-1214

Keywords: 历史社会经济序列,过去2000年,中国,重建方法

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Abstract:

重建历史时期的社会经济序列是研究气候变化对社会经济影响的难点问题。基于中国历史文献记载丰富、覆盖时段长、记录时间分辨率高、含有大量的社会经济信息描述的特点,本文阐述了采用语义差异法定量重建历史时期社会经济序列的方法,特别是其中的文字描述等级化和时间尺度归一化技术。语义差异法源于心理学,通常采用双极(相对、反义)形容词来刻画研究对象的属性,以表示不同程度的言语进行量化区分,根据描述词汇的语义差异构建分级量表。采用语义差异法对历史社会经济变化进行量化的关键是确定重建指标分级量化的标准,需要在兼顾不同词汇的语义是否易于区分的同时,特别注意各等级及其所对应的标准词汇的物理意义。时间尺度归一化主要解决根据原始记录重建的原始等级序列可能存在的时间分辨率不均等或时间不连续问题,以10年分辨率作为时间尺度均一化的基本时间单元,对年分辨率的记录,可采取先逐年等级化重建再加权平均到10年等级值的方法进行升尺度处理;对年代际以上尺度的数据则可先直接对记录进行等级化,再通过多时间分辨率10年数据的融合方法进行降尺度处理,得到10年分辨率的等级值。

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