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大气科学  2003 

北极海冰与ENSO事件在准四年时间尺度上的可能联系

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2003.05.05

Keywords: 北极海冰,准四年振荡,厄尔尼诺,海-冰-气相互作用

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Abstract:

分析了北极海冰的变化规律及其与ENSO循环在准四年时间尺度上的可能联系.结果表明(59.5~179.5°E,60.5~89.5.N)的高纬海域范围内(包括喀拉海、拉普捷夫海及东西伯利亚海,简称为A区)的北极海冰变化以9月份变率最大并具有准四年周期,在这个周期段上A区极冰与Nino3区的海温变化有明显的位相差.当Nino3区SST滞后海冰约16个月时,两者达到最大负相关.A区的9月海冰面积指数和SST的时滞相关系数分布表明,次年4月开始在赤道东太平洋区域出现一显著负相关区,次两年的2月负相关达到最大,之后减弱消失.这表明9月A区海冰面积偏小,则次年春季以后出现E1Nin0现象.海冰与环流相关分析表明,其相互影响机制可能是由于少冰年的弱冷源效应,使得该地区上空气旋环流发展,并通过中高纬相互作用促进北太平洋西北部及东亚沿岸距平气旋式环流的发展,有利于赤道异常西风形成从而触发和维持ElNino事件的产生和发展.

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