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大气科学  2005 

Helen台风(9505)异常路径的诊断分析与数值模拟

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.06.09

Keywords: 热带气旋,台风西行北翘,异常路径

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Abstract:

南海台风西行北翘是小概率事件,预报具有一定的难度.作者应用中尺度模式MM5,对具有南海台风西行北翘路径特征的9505号强热带风暴(Helen)的异常路径进行了诊断分析和数值模拟.研究结果表明:副热带高压出现断裂,副高主体减弱东撤,导致Helen在断裂点处北翘,此异常路径是环境场与Helen本身非线性相互作用的结果.环境场的主要天气系统(如副热带高压、高空冷涡)与Helen之间的相互作用并未影响副热带高压薄弱地带的出现以及Helen在副热带高压断裂点处的北翘,但对Helen北翘后的路径有较为明显的影响.Helen的水平结构(包括风廓线的非对称结构、最大风速、最大风速半径等)变化对其异常路径影响有一定影响,其中风场的非对称结构变化对其异常路径的影响更为明显,当最大风速位于台风环流的东北象限,模拟得到的Helen路径无明显的北翘过程,为持续的西北行;当最大风速位于台风环流的西南象限,Helen路径为显著的西行北翘异常路径.

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