Epstein E S. Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus, 1969, 21: 739~759
[2]
Leith, C S. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1974, 102: 409~418
[3]
袁重光, 赵彦, 李旭, 等. 气候预测中的集合方法初探. 大气科学, 2000, 24(2): 207~214Yuan Chongguang, Zhao Yan, Li Xu, et al. A note on ensemble methods for climate prediction. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 2000, 24(2): 207~214
[4]
Tracton M S, Kalany E. Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical Aspects. Weather and Forecasting, 1993, 8: 379~398.
[5]
Buizza R, Palmer T N. The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 1995, 52: 1434~1456
[6]
Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer T N, et al. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 1996, 122: 73~119
[7]
Houtekamer P L, Lefaivre L, Derome J, et al. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1996, 124: 1225~1242
[8]
李泽椿, 陈德辉. 国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1): 1~15Li Zechun, Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 2002, 13(1): 1~15
[9]
Zhu Y J, Toth Z, Wobus R, et al. The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 2002, 83: 73~83
[10]
Toth Z, Talagrand O, Candille G, et al. Probability and ensemble forecasts. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner\'s Guide in Atmospheric Science. Jolliffe I T and Stephenson D B, Eds. Wiley, 2003. 137~163
[11]
Zhu Yuejian. Probabilistic forecasts and evaluations based on a global ensemble prediction system. Observations, Theory, and Modeling of Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability, 2004. 277~287
[12]
Tothl Z, Kalany Y. Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1993, 74: 2317~2330
[13]
Mu Mu, Wang Jiacheng. Nonlinear fastest growing perturbation and the first kind of predictability. Science in China (Series D), 2001, 44(12): 1128~1139.
[14]
Buizza R, Houtekamer P L, Toth Z, et al. Assessment of the status of global ensemble prediction (To be submitted to Mon. Wea. Rev)
[15]
Buizza R, Barkmeijer J, Palmer T N, et al. Current status and future developments of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Meteor. Appl., 2000, 7: 163~175
[16]
杨学胜, 陈德辉, 冷亭波, 等. 时间滞后与奇异向量初值生成方法的比较试验. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13 (1): 62~66 Yang Xuesheng, Chen Dehui, Leng Tingbo, et al. The comparison experiments of SV and LAF initial perturbation techniques used at the NMC ensemble prediction system. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 2002, 13(1): 62~66
[17]
Du J, Mullen S L, Sanders F. Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1997, 125: 2427~2459
[18]
Sindic R G, Toth Z, Lalnay E. Storm scale ensemble experiments with ARPS model preliminary results. Preprints, 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1998. 279~280
[19]
Du Jun , Tracton M S. Implementation of a real-time short-range ensemble forecasting system at NCEP: an update. Preprints, 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2001, 355~356.
[20]
杜钧. 集合预报的现状和前景. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1): 16~28Du Jun. Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 2002, 13(1): 16~28
[21]
陈静, 陈德辉, 颜宏. 集合数值预报发展与研究进展. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(4): 497~507Chen Jing, Chen Dehui, Yan hong. A brief review on the development of ensemble prediction system. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 2002, 13(4): 497~507
[22]
Xu Mei, Stensrud D J, Bao J W, et al. Applications of the adjoint technique to short-range ensemble forecasting of mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2001, 129: 1395~1418
[23]
Stensrud D J, Bao J W, Warner T T. Using initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2000, 128: 2077~2107
[24]
陈静, 薛纪善, 颜宏. 华南中尺度暴雨数值预报的不确定性与集合预报试验. 气象学报, 2003, 61(4): 432~446 Chen Jing, Xue Jishan, Yan hong. The uncertainty of mesoscale numerical prediction of South China heavy rain and the ensemble simulations. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 2003, 61(4): 432~446
[25]
陈静. 中尺度暴雨短期集合预报研究. 中国气象科学研究院博士学位论文, 2003Chen Jing. The study of short-range ensemble mesoscale heavy rainfall prediction. Ph.D. dissertation (in Chinese), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science. 2003
[26]
陈静, 薛纪善, 颜宏. 物理过程参数化方案对中尺度暴雨数值模拟影响的研究. 气象学报, 2003, 61(2): 203~218Chen Jing, Xue Jishan, Yan Hong.The impact of physics parameterization schemes on mesoscale heavy rainfall simulation. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 2003, 61(2): 203~218
[27]
Hoecker W H. Three southerly low-level jet streams delineated by the Weather Bureau special papal network of 1961. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 1963, 91: 573~582