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大气科学  2005 

一种新型的中尺度暴雨集合预报初值扰动方法研究

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.05.05

Keywords: 中尺度暴雨,集合预报,初值扰动方法

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Abstract:

提出一种针对对流不稳定构造具有中尺度运动特征的集合预报扰动初值的新方法--异物理模态法,介绍了异物理模态法产生初值扰动区域和扰动振幅的数学处理方案,即由不同对流参数化方案预报离差获得集合预报初值扰动区域、扰动结构和扰动振幅的数学处理过程.利用美国PSU/NCAR的MM5中尺度模式,对一次典型暴雨进行异物理模态法初值扰动集合预报试验,详细分析了扰动初值的结构和集合预报结果.结果表明,该方法产生的初值扰动场具有合理的中尺度环流结构,可以反映对流敏感区域的对流不稳定的预报不确定性,集合预报结果可以明显改善控制预报.

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