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大气科学  2005 

关于北半球准定常行星波年际变化的资料分析和数值模拟

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.05.02

Keywords: 准定常行星波,年际变化,北极涛动

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Abstract:

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和大气环流模式(CCSR/NIESAGCMVer.5.6),对北半球冬季准定常行星波活动的年际变化进行了分析和模拟.基于以前对EP通量散度的遥相关分析,作者将EP通量散度的EOF第一分量时间序列T1定义为年际变化指数.对应于T1的高指数,在对流层和平流层低层,准定常行星波更多地折向赤道传播,从而在对流层出现一个EP通量散度的偶极子型异常,这一形势主要来自2波和3波的贡献;而折向高纬度经极地波导向上传播的行星波活动减弱了,在高纬度产生异常辐散,这一形势主要来自1波和2波的贡献.相关和回归分析发现,准定常行星波的年际变化与北极涛动有密切联系,与T1对应的纬向平均流场以及位势高度场的异常分布都与北极涛动下的异常形势非常相似.利用大气环流模式模拟的结果显示,模式在对流层可以很好地模拟准定常行星波的年际变化以及北极涛动形势,并且二者同样密切相关.但是模式还不能很好地模拟行星波经极地波导向平流层传播的年际变化,对可能的成因也进行了探讨.

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