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大气科学  2005 

ATOVS资料在长江流域一次暴雨过程模拟中的应用

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.05.11

Keywords: 梅雨锋,β中尺度对流云团,ATOVS资料,资料同化

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Abstract:

利用2002年"973"中国暴雨试验(CHeRES)期间获取的常规、非常规观测资料,对7月22~23日长江中下游地区的一次大暴雨过程进行了分析和模拟研究.分析表明,此次降雨过程是由东北-西南向梅雨锋上发生发展的β中尺度对流云团造成.在高低空环流的共同作用下,高空槽后干冷气流与西南暖湿气流在长江中下游地区频繁交汇,使得中尺度对流系统得以持续发展.模拟研究发现,由于梅雨锋云带结构比较松散,造成降雨的强对流系统尺度较小,仅利用常规探空资料难以理想地模拟出降雨过程中对流云团的强度、演变.为此,采用不同同化方案同化NOAA16卫星的ATOVS资料,对此次降雨过程进行了对比模拟试验.结果发现,形成模式初始场时考虑间接同化ATOVS反演得出的温、湿资料,模式虽然同样能较好地对造成暴雨的主要天气系统、降雨的主要落区以及暴雨发生的时段进行模拟,但雨区和雨强的模拟效果没有明显改进.相比而言,采用增量三维变分同化系统,直接同化ATOVS资料形成初始场,不仅可以较好地模拟出暴雨天气形势、主要影响系统,而且对降雨的落区、强度、暴雨发生时段均有较好的反映.模拟试验结果表明,直接同化ATOVS资料,模拟的梅雨锋上局地暴雨强度与实际降雨量级基本一致,且可以有效改进对流层温、湿场分布.这不仅说明ATOVS资料的使用对于提高梅雨锋上局地暴雨过程模拟效果是可行的、必要的,而且也为该资料用于梅雨锋暴雨的预报奠定了基础.

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