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大气科学  2005 

近代中国北方干湿变化趋势的多时段特征

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.05.01

Keywords: 降水和气温,增暖,干湿指标,变化趋势,中国北方,变湿

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Abstract:

利用CRU(ClimateResearchUnit)月降水和月平均气温资料,通过构造一个既包含降水变化又考虑温度变化对潜在蒸发影响的干湿指标,对我国北方近100年(1901~1998年)、50年(1951~2002年)、20年(1981~2002年)和近10年(1991~2002年)干湿变化趋势进行了系统的检测和分析,突出了在全球增暖背景下温度变化对干湿变化的重要影响,揭示了中国北方四个不同时段干湿变化趋势的基本特征.结果表明:由于受温度升高的影响,近100年我国西部地区降水尽管增加但并不存在变湿趋势,而东部地区降水显著增加的地区明显呈现出变湿趋势,显著变湿的范围较降水增加的范围大,且强度明显增强,这与这个地区温度的降低有关.在近50年,100°E以东的北方地区是明显的干旱化趋势;西北西部显著变湿的范围较降水显著增加的范围为小,而东部干旱化区域的范围较降水显著减少的区域大.这充分说明了增暖能够减弱降水增加对地表水分收支的贡献,也就是加剧降水减少的干旱化程度.在近20年,新疆北部尽管降水量有所增加,但并未改变该地区干旱化的时空格局,也未发现显著的变湿趋势存在,这个时段北方大部分地区仍然以干旱化趋势为主.特别值得注意的是,在有些地区干湿指标的变化趋势与降水的变化趋势完全相反.在20年和近100年时段上,我国西部大部分地区仍处在一个干旱化的进程中,而华北地区在20年和50年时段上均表现为一个干旱化的趋势.

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