全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
大气科学  2005 

来自大气内部的季节气候可预测性初探

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.01.08

Keywords: 大气内部持续性可预测性

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

这是一个十分初步的工作结果.通常认为,气候的季节-年际可预测性主要来自缓慢变化的大气外强迫的异常(如海表温度、积雪、土壤温度和湿度等).作者从大气月平均风场异常的持续性以及与东亚季风年际异常相关的全球大气环流异常特征两个方面初步探讨东亚夏季气候的可预测性.初步结果说明,大气月平均风场在对流层上层和平流层下层的热带区域及一些关键区域可持续性可以超过一个季节,并且与东亚季风有显著相关,从而使得从大气内部变化来考虑东亚夏季风气候仍然有一定的可预测性.

References

[1]  Brankovic C, Palmer T N, Feranti L. Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J Climate, 1994, 7:217 - 237.
[2]  Ebisuzaki W. The potential predictability in a 14-year GCM simulation.J Climate, 1995, 8: 2749- 2761.
[3]  Koster R, Suarez D, Max J, et al. Variance and predictability of precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2000, 1 ( 1 ) : 26 - 46.
[4]  Sperber K R, Brankovic C, Deque M, et al. Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. Monthly Weather Review,2001, 129 (9): 2226-2248.
[5]  Schubert S D, Suarez M J, Pegion P J, et al. Predictability of zonal means during boreal summer. J Climate, 2002, 15 (4) : 420 - 434.
[6]  Camberlin P, Philippon N. The East African March-May rainy season: Associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968 - 97 period. J Climate, 2002, 15 (9): 1002- 1019.
[7]  Straus D, Shukla J, Paolino D, et al. Predictability of the seasonal mean atmospheric circulation during autumn, winter, and spring. J Climate, 2003, 16 (22): 3629-3649.
[8]  Molteni F, Corti S, Ferranti L, et al. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: Impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability. J Climate, 2003, 16 (24): 4001 -4021.
[9]  Kang In-Sik, June-Yi Lee, Chung-Kyu Park. Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J Climate, 2004, 17 (4):834-844.
[10]  Misra V. An evaluation of the predictability of Austral summer seaso nprecipitation over South America. J Climate, 2004, 17 (6): 1161-1175.
[11]  Timbal B, Power S, Colman R, et al. Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia? J Climate, 2002, 15 (10): 1230- 1238.
[12]  Wang H J, Matsuno T, Kurihara Y. Ensemble hindcast experiments for the flood period over China in 1998 by use of the CCSR/NIES atmospheric general circulation model. J Meteor Soc Japan,2000, 78 (4): 357-365.
[13]  Wang H J. Instability of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relations. Adv Atmos Sci , 2002, 19:1 - 11.
[14]  李崇银.频繁的强东亚大槽活动与El Nino的发生[J].中国科学(B),1988,31:667-674.
[15]  王绍武.气候系统引论[M].北京:气象出版社,1994.94-109.
[16]  孙淑清,孙柏民.东亚冬季风环流异常与江淮流域旱涝的关系[J].气象学报,1995,53:440-450.
[17]  林朝晖 李旭 等.IAP短期气候预测系统的改进及其对1998全国汛期旱涝形势的预测[J].气候与环境研究,1998,3(4):339-348.
[18]  郎咸梅 王会军 姜大膀.中国冬季气候可预测性的跨季度集合数值预测研究[J].科学通报,2003,48(15):1700-1704,.
[19]  Lorenz E N.Deterministic nonperiodic flow.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1963, 20 (2): 130-148.
[20]  Lorenz E N. A history of prevailing ideas about the general circulation of the atmosphere. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1983, 64 (7): 730-769.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133