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大气科学  2006 

近50年东北冷涡异常特征及其与前汛期华南降水的关系分析

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.06.19

Keywords: 前汛期,东北冷涡,旱涝

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Abstract:

利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的1951~2004年中国160站华南前汛期(5~6月)月平均降水、气温资料、欧洲中心提供的ERA-40再分析资料和Reynolds海温资料,对东北冷涡与华南前汛期降水进行了统计分析,定义了一个前汛期东北冷涡强度指数(NECVI),并研究了前汛期东北冷涡异常年同期东亚季风、西太平洋副高、对流层低层的垂直运动异常特征和前期全球海表温度(SST)的先兆信号,结果表明:前汛期东北冷涡强度与华南降水存在显著的正相关,东北冷涡强年,前期东亚冬季风偏弱,同期东亚夏季风异常爆发提前且偏强,西太平洋副高位置偏南,华南地区低层上升运动发展,降水偏多;东北冷涡偏弱年,前期东亚冬季风偏弱,同期东亚夏季风爆发推迟且偏弱,西太平洋副高位置偏北,华南地区低层下沉运动发展,降水偏少;前汛期东北冷涡与前期中国近海海温存在显著的负相关关系,前汛期东北冷涡异常强年,前期对应着LaNia的成熟阶段或发展阶段,而前汛期东北冷涡异常弱年则对应着ElNio的成熟阶段或发展阶段.

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