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大气科学  2006 

华南前汛期的锋面降水和夏季风降水Ⅰ.划分日期的确定

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.06.15

Keywords: 华南,前汛期,锋面降水,夏季风降水

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Abstract:

前汛期暴雨常常引发华南地区的洪涝,但是前汛期降水的预报能力却相当低.降水的预报在很大程度上依赖于对降水性质的理解,而华南前汛期降水通常被认为只是锋面性质的降水.事实上,南海夏季风在6月(甚至5月)就可以影响到华南地区并产生季风对流降水.因此,华南前汛期包含了两种不同性质的降水,即锋面降水和夏季风降水,如何区分它们是非常重要的.为了区分它们,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、CMAP资料和中国730站降水资料,分析气候平均(1971~2000年)状态下锋面降水和季风降水期间大气性质和特征的差异,得到华南前汛期夏季风降水开始的基本判据:100hPa纬向风由西风转为东风并维持5天以上.利用该判据得出气候平均条件下的华南夏季风降水开始于5月24日,并得到1951~2004年逐年华南前汛期锋面降水和季风降水的划分日期.合成分析的结果表明,得到的划分日期是基本合理的,因为它将锋面降水和季风降水期间大气特点的显著差别区分开来.

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