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大气科学  2006 

近40年我国暴雨的年代际变化特征

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.06.01

Keywords: 暴雨,年代际变化,季风,海表面温度

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Abstract:

利用1961~2000年全国610个测站逐日降水资料和暴雨定义,分析我国近40年暴雨发生频率的年代际时空变化特征.分析结果表明,我国夏季暴雨多发生在长江中下游、华南、四川中东部、黄淮地区和华北东部,夏季暴雨发生频率具有明显的年代际变化,且各地区暴雨的年代际变化有一定差异.分析结果还表明,我国东部季风区夏季暴雨与洪涝的关系非常密切,特别是90年代江淮流域暴雨对洪涝的贡献明显增大.作者还初步讨论了夏季暴雨发生频率年代际变化的气候背景,指出:70年代末开始的华北暴雨减少可能与赤道中、东太平洋海表面温度的年代际变化有关,而90年代长江以南暴雨增多则可能与热带西太平洋偏东方向热对流的年代际变化有关.

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