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大气科学  2006 

层状云系人工增雨潜力评估研究

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.05.20

Keywords: 增雨潜力,增雨潜力要素,潜力要素评估

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Abstract:

层状云系是中国人工增雨催化作业的主要对象.云系人工增雨潜力的大小是判断是否作业的最为重要的科学依据.但是,目前中国还没有一套比较完整的综合判断云系人工增雨潜力的评估方法.自然降水形成过程是个复杂的科学问题,因此判断人工增雨潜力也是一个非常复杂的科学问题.作者利用中尺度MM5数值模式模拟的层状云系研究与人工增雨潜力有关的要素,从理论上研究了不同要素与降水的关系.在分析云体的垂直结构、降水机制、水汽厚度、冰面过饱和水汽量、云水厚度、过冷水含量、冰晶浓度、降水效率(凝结水降水效率和凝华水降水效率)等潜力要素基础上,获得了新的潜力要素,例如"催化-供给"云结构、降水机制、冰面过饱和水汽量,并提出了定性综合判断云系人工增雨潜力思路.

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