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大气科学  2008 

气候-天气研究及预报模式(CWRF)在中国的应用:区域优化

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.03.04

Keywords: 区域气候模式,CWRF,缓冲区,模拟区域优化,降水

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Abstract:

从资料分析和实际模拟两个方面,对中国区域气候模拟中的首要问题——模拟区域的选取进行了研究。首先,采用相关分析确定大尺度环流因子影响中国区域降水的关键区,以保证行星及天气尺度系统能够有效地通过区域气候模式的侧边界传入模拟区域,同时依靠自身的物理机制使中尺度系统在模拟区域内部发展;其次,利用NRA(NCEP\|NCARReanalysisII)和ERA(ECMWFReanalysis40)两再分析资料的相关性,对侧边界场资料的可信性进行分析,结果表明南部赤道洋面附近和青藏高原地区两种再分析资料的相关系数很低,表明资料的可信度低,因此侧边界的位置要尽量避开这些地区。根据以上分析结果,确定了中国区域气候模拟的最佳区域,在此基础上利用实际个例模拟对模拟区域的优化结果进行验证。将美国伊利诺伊州立大学水文研究所开发的CWRF(Climate-WeatherResearchandForecastingModel)应用于中国季风区,选取1998年夏季的极端洪涝事件作为验证个例,结果表明:模拟区域对区域气候模式的模拟性能有决定性的作用,资料分析确定的最佳模拟区域能够较好地再现1998年长江流域的极端洪涝事件。当模拟区域扩大,南部缓冲区位于赤道,东西侧边界远离环流因子影响关键区时,模拟结果急剧下降,基本无法再现实测降水。当模拟区域仅在东西方向扩大时,模拟结果略好于上述扩大的区域,但仍然远低于资料分析确定的最佳区域,表明有效地抓住主控环流因子对区域气候模拟的重要影响。资料分析和实际模拟的一致结论确定了中国区域气候模拟的最佳区域,实现了CWRF对中国季风区模拟区域的优化。

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