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大气科学  2008 

SMIP2试验对亚洲夏季风的模拟能力及其可预报性的分析

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.01.04

Keywords: 大气环流模式,SMIP2比较计划,季节尺度,亚洲夏季降水,可预报性

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Abstract:

利用参加第二次季节预测模式比较计划(Phase2oftheSeasonalPredictionModelIntercomparisonProject,简称SMIP2)的五个大气环流模式的输出结果,比较了这些模式对亚洲夏季降水的模拟能力,并讨论了大气环流模式在季节尺度上对亚洲夏季风的可预报性。结果表明,各模式能够较好地模拟亚洲夏季降水的大尺度分布特征。除了模拟的东亚夏季降水异常经验正交函数分解第一模态(EOF1)的时间系数与观测之间的相关系数较低之外,多数模式可以大致再现东亚、南亚和西太平洋夏季降水异常EOF1及其对应的时间系数。分析表明,热带地区有很好的可预报性,北半球副热带地区的可预报性尽管也较好,但比热带地区要低,南半球热带以外地区的可预报性较差,陆地上的可预报性比海洋上低。在热带和北半球副热带地区,由海温强迫所产生的较大外部方差对此地高可预报性有很大的贡献。与正常年份相比,模式在强ElNi?o年和强LaNi?a年表现出较高的可预报性,在南亚和印度洋地区大多数模式在ElNi?o年比LaNi?a年产生了更好的可预报性,在中西太平洋区域ElNi?o年可预报性的高值中心较LaNi?a年位置偏西。

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