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大气科学  2011 

2009/2010年冬季云南严重干旱原因的进一步分析

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.06.02

Keywords: 云南冬季干旱北大西洋涛动南支槽波列贝加尔湖高压脊

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Abstract:

为了揭示2009/2010年冬季云南出现严重干旱灾害的原因,本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及云南省台站降水资料计算得到的云南冬季降水指数,讨论了在北半球冬季(12~2月)北大西洋涛动(NorthAtlanticOscillation,简称NAO)和云南省降水(旱涝)之间的联系。分析结果表明,在1961/1962~2009/2010年间的49个冬季,冬季平均的云南降水指数和NAO指数的相关系数为0.373(超过95%信度),表明NAO和云南省冬季降水之间存在着一定的联系。云南省冬季降水指数和北半球300hPa位势高度异常场之间的回归结果表明,和云南冬季降水联系紧密的环流系统可分为南北两个主要部分:南支槽波列和贝加尔湖高压脊系统。研究表明,NAO可以通过在亚—非副热带急流中传播的准定常波列以及波的反射分别影响这两个系统。因此,NAO和云南冬季降水之间存在一定的联系。同时,我们的结果还表明NAO和云南冬季降水之间的关系还受ENSO事件的调制。在ENSO为暖位相的冬季,NAO和云南降水关系更为紧密,而在ENSO为冷位相的冬季,NAO和云南冬季降水的联系则不太显著。

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