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大气科学  2011 

全球和区域气候模式对中国东部夏季降水季节演变模拟的比较

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.06.16

Keywords: 区域气候模式夏季降水中国东部季节演变

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Abstract:

本文利用全球海气耦合模式(MIROC3.2_hires)和区域气候模式(RegCM3)的模拟结果,分析了东亚地区夏季降水和大气环流的季节演变特征,并与NCEP/DOE再分析资料和降水观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,全球和区域气候模式都能反映出中国东部地区夏季平均环流场和降水场气候态分布的基本特征,但全球模式模拟的雨带范围偏大,几乎覆盖整个华南地区,区域气候模式则较好地模拟出华南沿海地区的降水大值中心,与实际观测更相符。对于季节演变特征而言,全球模式模拟的华南前汛期和江淮梅雨期的主要降水中心均位于华南地区,未能反映出北推过程,而区域模式能够模拟出中国东部地区夏季雨带随时间呈现出的北推过程,即华南前汛期、江淮梅雨期和华北与东北雨季三个阶段。区域模式对东亚高空急流和对流层低层南风场随时间北移的模拟能力明显优于全球模式,这可能是区域模式能够改进对降水季节演变模拟的重要原因。

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