Boorman D B, Sefton C E M. 1997. Recognizing the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response [J]. Climatic Change, 35: 415-434.
[2]
曹丽娟. 2007. 气候变化对黄河和长江流域水文过程影响研究 [D]. 中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文. 158pp. Cao Lijuan. 2007. Climate change impacts on the hydrological processes of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River basins [D]. Ph. D. dissertation (in Chinese). The Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 158pp.
[3]
Cao L J, Dong W J, Xu Y L, et al. 2007. Validating the runoff from the PRECIS model using a large scale routing model [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24 (5): 855-862.
[4]
曹丽娟, 张冬峰, 张勇, 等. 2008. 中国当代土地利用变化对黄河流域径流影响 [J]. 大气科学, 32 (2): 300-308. Cao Lijuan, Zhang Dongfeng, Zhang Yong, et al. 2008. The effects of current land use in China on streamflow in the Yellow River basin [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 32 (2): 300-308.
[5]
戴昌军, 梁忠民, 栾承梅, 等. 2006. 洪水频率分析中PDS模型研究进展 [J]. 水科学进展, 17 (1): 136-140. Dai Changjun, Liang Zhongmin, Luan Chengmei, et al. 2006. Advance in flood frequency analysis for partial duration series [J]. Advances in Water Science (in Chinese), 17 (1): 136- 140.
[6]
Dickinson R E, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy P J. 1993. Biosphere- atmosphere transfer scheme (BATs) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR community climate model [R]. Technical Report, National Center for Atmospheric Research.
[7]
Ekstr?m M, Fowler H J, Kilsby C G, et al. 2005. New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 2. Future estimates and use in impact studies [J]. J. Hydrol., 300: 234-251.
[8]
Fu G B, Chen S L, Liu C M, et al. 2004. Hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow River basin for the last 50 years [J]. Climatic Change, 65: 149- 178.
[9]
Gellens D, Roulin E. 1998. Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios [J]. J. Hydrol., 210: 242-258.
[10]
姜彤, 苏布达, 王艳君, 等. 2005. 四十年来长江流域气温、降水与径流变化趋势 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 1 (2): 65-68. Jiang Tong, Su Buda, Wang Yanjun, et al. 2005. Trends of temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin from 1961 to 2000 [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 1 (2): 65-68.
[11]
Katz R W, Browns B G. 1992. Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages [J]. Climatic Change, 21: 289-302.
[12]
Kite G W. 1993. Application of a land class hydrological model to climatic change [J]. Water Resour. Res., 29: 2377-2384.
[13]
Liu C M, Zheng H X. 2004. Changes in components of the hydrological cycle in the Yellow River basin during the second half of the 20th century [J]. Hydrological Processes, 18: 2337-2345.
[14]
Meehl G A, Tebaldi C. 2004. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century [J]. Science, 305: 994-997.
[15]
Milly P C D, Wetherald R T, Dunne K A, et al. 2002. Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate [J]. Nature, 415: 514-517.
[16]
Xie P P, Chen M Y, Yang S, et al. 2007. A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation over East Asia [J]. J. Hydrometeor., 8: 607-626.
[17]
Xiong Z, Wang S Y, Zeng Z M, et al. 2003. Analysis of simulated heavy rain over the Yangtze River valley during 11-30 June 1998 using RIEMS [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20: 815-824.
[18]
Xu J X. 2005. Temporal variation of river flow renewability in the middle Yellow River and the influencing factors [J]. Hydrological Processes, 19: 1871-1882.
[19]
Xu Z X, Li J Y, Liu C M. 2007. Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin [J]. Hydrological Processes, 21 (14): 1935-1948.
[20]
赵芳芳, 徐宗学. 2009. 黄河源区未来气候变化的水文响应 [J]. 资源科学, 31 (5): 722-730. Zhao Fangfang, Xu Zongxue. 2009. Hydrological response to climate change in headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin [J]. Resources Science (in Chinese), 31 (5): 722-730.
[21]
Zhang J Y, Dong W J, Fu C B, et al. 2003. Streamflow simulation for the Yellow River basin using RIEMS and LRM [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20: 415-424.
[22]
Mirza M Q, Warrick R A, Ericksen N J, et al. 1998. Trends and persistence in precipitation in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna River basins [J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 43 (6): 845-858.
[23]
New M, Lister D, Hulme M, et al. 2002. A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas [J]. Climate Res., 21: 1-25.
[24]
Panagoulia D, Dimou G. 1997. Sensitivity of flood events to global climate change [J]. J. Hydrol., 191: 208-222.
[25]
Prudhomme C, Jakob D, Svensson C. 2003. Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments [J]. J. Hydrol., 277: 1-23.
[26]
施雅风, 姜彤, 苏布达, 等. 2004. 1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探 [J]. 湖泊科学, 16 (4): 289-297. Shi Yafeng, Jiang Tong, Su Buda, et al. 2004. Preliminary analysis on the relation between the evolution of heavy floods in the Yangtze River catchment and the climate changes since 1840 [J]. Journal of Lake Sciences (in Chinese), 16 (4): 289-297.
[27]
石英, 高学杰. 2008. 温室效应对我国东部地区气候影响的高分辨率数值试验 [J]. 大气科学, 32 (5): 1006-1018. Shi Ying, Gao Xuejie. 2008. Influence of greenhouse effect on eastern China climate simulated by a high resolution regional climate model [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 32 (5): 1006-1018.
[28]
Xia J, Wang Z G, Wang G S, et al. 2004. The renewability of water resources and its quantification in the Yellow River basin, China [J]. Hydrological Processes, 18: 2327-2336.
[29]
Zhang Q, Jiang T, Gemmer M, et al. 2005. Precipitation, temperature and discharge analysis from 1951 to 2002 in the Yangtze Catchment, China [J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (1): 65-80.
[30]
郑红星, 刘昌明. 2003. 黄河源区径流年内分配变化规律分析 [J]. 地理科学进展, 22(6): 585-590. Zheng Hongxing, Liu Changming. 2003. Changes of annual runoff distribution in the headwater of the Yellow River basin [J]. Progress in Geography (in Chinese), 22 (6): 585-590.