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大气科学  2013 

近百年东亚冬季气温及其大气环流变化型态

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12305

Keywords: 近百年东亚冬季气温变化型,大气环流型态,气候增暖

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Abstract:

利用最新20世纪近百年再分析气象资料,研究近百年东亚冬季气温变化型及其相关的大气环流型态。结果表明近百年内东亚冬季气温主要有两种变化型:第一是东亚西南与东北相反气温变化型,表现在40°N以南及105°E以西地区(西南地区)气温变化与40°N以北及105°E以东地区(东北地区)变化相反;第二是40°N以南气温一致变化型。与第一种气温变化型耦合的大气模态是500hPa欧亚型遥相关、西伯利亚高压及北大西洋涛动。当欧亚型遥相关负位相,北大西洋涛动正位相及西伯利亚高压减弱时,有利于蒙古和我国105°E以东的区域增温而我国西南地区和青藏高原降温,反之亦然。第二种气温变化型耦合大气模态是500hPa西太平洋型遥相关,北太平洋涛动。当西太平洋型遥相关及北太平洋涛动处于正位相时(北太平洋北负南正),东亚40°N以南地区增温,东亚40°N以北地区降温。耦合的大气模态的型态差异,影响各阶段气温的年际变化。近一百年中,欧亚型遥相关和北大西洋涛动在1984~2010期间的型态最显著,是20世纪80年代东亚显著增暖的原因之一。研究还发现20世纪中期后东亚气温的年际变化与极地环流的变化联系紧密,表现在西伯利亚高压范围东扩并与极地环流联系,也是近百年气温趋势上升的一个原因。

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