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大气科学  2013 

近年来我国短期气候预测中动力相似预测方法研究与应用进展

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12311

Keywords: 短期气候预测,动力相似,预报误差

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Abstract:

鉴于当前短期气候预测中,纯粹使用动力学方法尚不能完全满足气候预测业务的需要,因此有必要在策略上采取动力和统计相结合的办法。在具体实现手段上,简要介绍了从历史资料中提炼预测信息,发展了一种基于历史相似误差订正的相似—动力短期气候预测新方法。分别在月、季节以及ENSO等短期气候预测领域相继开展了试验和应用,取得了一些令人鼓舞的初步结果,为下一步深入开展有关短期气候预测科学的研究提供了些许借鉴。

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