全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
大气科学  2013 

集合动力因子对登陆台风“莫拉克”(0908)暴雨落区的诊断与预报研究

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11156

Keywords: “莫拉克”台风,动力因子,暴雨落区,诊断与预报

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

“莫拉克”是2009年登陆我国热带气旋中影响范围最广、造成损失最大的台风.“莫拉克”带来的强降水导致台湾南部发生50年来最严重的水灾,福建、浙江等省的部分站点过程雨量超过50年一遇.因此,在台风暴雨(强降水)预报中,能否准确把握其落区就显得尤为重要.本文首先利用中尺度非静力数值模式WRF对台风“莫拉克”进行高分辨率数值模拟(三层嵌套,最高分辨率为2km).模式较好地再现了台风中心的移动路径、强度;模拟的降水分布区域与实况也较为相符.利用再分析资料及模拟的高分辨率资料对暴雨成因进行诊断分析,表明造成此次强降水过程的水汽主要由西南季风输送,并且垂直运动旺盛,贯穿整个对流层.根据集合动力因子预报方法,运用广义湿位温、对流涡度矢量垂直分量及水汽散度通量对暴雨落区进行了诊断和预报,发现广义湿位温等值线的“漏斗状”区域与暴雨落区对应关系显著;基于NCEP-GFS每日四次的预报场资料,利用对流涡度矢量和水汽散度通量做出的降水落区预报表明,二者对降水落区均有一定的指示意义.强降水主要位于对流层中低层对流涡度矢量垂直积分量的梯度大值区附近,其时间演变与观测降水的演变具有相当高的一致性;水汽通量散度抓住了垂直运动和水汽散度这两个引发暴雨的关键因子,对降水的发生范围和强降水极值中心的判断更为准确.这三个动力因子都可以为“莫拉克”台风暴雨(强降水)落区提供信号,对台风暴雨落区具有一定的诊断和预报意义.

References

[1]  李英, 陈联寿, 李勋. 2009. 台风莫拉克 (0908) 与天鹅 (0907) 相互作用对其强度的影响研究 [C]// 2009年海峡两岸气象科学技术研讨会论文集. 北京: 中国气象学会. Li Ying, Chen Lianshou, Li Xun. 2009. The interaction between Typhoon Morakot (0908) and Goni (0907) and its impact on the intensity of Typhoon Morakot [C]. Book of Abstracts of Workshop on East Asia Meteorological Science & Technology (2009). Beijing: Chinese Meteorological Society.
[2]  Olson D A, Junker N W, Korty B. 1995. Evaluation of 33 years of quantitative precipitation forecasting at the NMC [J]. Wea. Forecasting, 10: 498-511.
[3]  冉令坤,楚艳丽. 2009.强降水过程中垂直螺旋度和散度通量及其拓展形式的诊断分析 [J].物理学报,58(11): 8094-8106. Ran Lingkun,Chu Yanli. 2009. Diagnosis of vertical helicity,divergence flux and their extensions in heavy-rainfall event [J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese),58(11): 8094-8106.
[4]  赵宇, 高守亭. 2008. 对流涡度矢量在暴雨诊断分析中的应用研究 [J]. 大气科学, 32 (3): 444-456. Zhao Yu, Gao Shouting. 2008. Application of the convective vorticity vector to the analysis of rainstorm [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 67 (4): 540-548. 赵宇, 崔晓鹏. 2009. 对流涡度矢量和湿涡度矢量在暴雨诊断分析中的应用研究 [J]. 气象学报, 67 (4): 540-548. Zhao Yu, Cui Xiaopeng. 2009. Application of convective and moist vorticity vectors in the analysis of a heavy rainfall event [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 67 (4): 540-548.
[5]  陈洪滨, 范学花. 2010. 2009年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 15 (3): 322-336. Chen Hongbin, Fan Xuehua. 2010. Some extreme events of weather, climate and related phenomena in 2009 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 15 (3): 322-336.
[6]  陈联寿. 2006.热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展 [J].应用气象学报,17(6): 672-681. Chen Lianshou. 2006. The evolution on research and operational forecasting techniques of tropical cyclones [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese),17(6): 672-681.
[7]  陈联寿, 孟智勇. 2001. 我国热带气旋研究十年进展 [J]. 大气科学, 25 (3): 420-432. Chen Lianshou, Meng Zhiyong. 2001. An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 25 (3): 420-432.
[8]  陈联寿, 罗哲贤, 李英. 2004. 登陆热带气旋研究的进展 [J]. 气象学报, 62 (5): 541-549. Chen Lianshou, Luo Zhexian, Li Ying. 2004. Research advances on tropical cyclone landfall process [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 62 (5): 541-549.
[9]  Chen Lianshou, Li Ying, Cheng Zhengquan. 2010. An overview of research and forecasting on rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones [J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27 (5): 967-976.
[10]  Ebert E E, McBride J L. 2000. Verification of precipitation in weather systems: Determination of systematic errors [J]. J. Hydrol., 239: 179-202.
[11]  Gao S T, Cao J. 2007. Physical basis of generalized potential temperature and its application to cyclone tracks in nonuniformly saturated atmosphere [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 112: D18101, doi: 10.1029/2007 JD008701.
[12]  Gao S T, Ping F, Li X F, et al. 2004a. A convective vorticity vector associated with tropical convection: A two-dimensional cloud-resolving modeling study [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 109: D14106, doi: 10.1029/2004 JD004807.
[13]  Gao S T, Wang X R, Zhou Y S. 2004b. Generation of generalized moist potential vorticity in a frictionless and moist adiabatic flow [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31: L12113, doi: 10.1029/2003GL019152.
[14]  Gao S T, Cui X P, Zhou Y S, et al. 2005a. A modeling study of moist and dynamic vorticity vectors associated with 2D tropical convection [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 110: D17104, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005675.
[15]  Gao S T, Zhou Y S, Lei T, et al. 2005b. Analyses of hot and humid weather in Beijing city in summer and its dynamical identification [J]. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 48 (Suppl. II): 128-137.
[16]  Gao S T, Li X F, Tao W K, et al. 2007. Convective and moist vorticity vectors associated with tropical oceanic convection: A three-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 112: D01105, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007179.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133