Carpenter S R, Brock W A. 2006. Rising variance: A leading indicator ecological transition [J]. Ecology Letters, 9: 311-318.
[2]
Clark P U, Alley R B, Pollard D. 1999. Northern Hemisphere Ice-Sheet influences on global climate change [J]. Science, 286: 1104-1111.
[3]
江志红, 李建平, 王梅华, 等. 2004a. 20 世纪全球温度场趋势变化的区域特征分析 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 9 (3): 422-434. Jiang Zhihong, Li Jianping, Wang Meihua, et al. 2004. Regional characteristics of the trend change for global temperature field during the last century [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 9 (3): 422-434.
[4]
江志红, 李建平, 屠其璞, 等. 2004b. 20 世纪全球温度年代和年代际变化的区域特征 [J]. 大气科学, 28 (4): 545-558. Jiang Zhihong, Li Jianping, Tu Qipu, et al. 2004. Regional characteristics of the decadal and interdecadal variations for global temperature field during the last century [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 28 (4):545-558.
[5]
李建平, 丑纪范, 史久恩. 1996. 气候突变的完备定义和类型 [J]. 北京气象学院, (1): 7-12. Li Jianping, Chou Jifan, Shi Jiuen. 1996.Complete definition and types of abrupt climate change [J]. Journal of Beijing Meteorological College (in Chinese), (1): 7-12.
May R M. 1976. Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics [J]. Nature (in Chinese), 261: 459-467.
[8]
Overpeck J T, Cole J E. 2006. Abrupt change in earth’s climate system [J].Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 31: 1-31.
[9]
Will M, Patrick M. 2007. Why is it so difficult? Trade liberalization under the Doha Agenda [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 23, 347-366 Post E, Forchhammer M C, Bret-Harte M S, et al. 2009. Ecological dynamics across the arctic associated with recent climate change [J].Science, 325: 1355-1358.
[10]
Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock W A, et al. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions [J]. Nature, 461: 53-59.
[11]
雷内·托姆. 1972. 结构稳定性与形态发生学 [M]. 成都: 四川教育出版社. Thom R. 1972. Stability Structural and Morphogenesis (in Chinese)[M]. Chengdu: Sichuan Education Press.
[12]
魏凤英. 1999. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社,62-76. Wei Fengying. 1999. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 62-76.
[13]
吴浩, 侯威, 钱忠华, 等. 2012. 基于气候变化综合指数的中国近50 年来气候变化敏感性研究 [J]. 物理学报, 61 (14): 149205. Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Qian Zhonghua, et al. 2012. The research on the sensitivity of climate change in China in recent 50 years based on composite index [J].Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 61 (14): 149205. 吴浩, 侯威, 颜鹏程. 2013. 试用临界慢化原理探讨气候突变 [J]. 物理学报, 62 (3): 039206. Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Yan Pengcheng. 2013. Try to use the principle of critical slowing down to discuss the abrupt climate change [J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 62 (3): 039206. 肖栋. 2008. 全球海气系统年代际突变的研究 [D]. 兰州大学大气科学学院博士学位论文. Xiao Dong. 2008. Study of the decadal abrupt changes of global ocean-atmosphere system [D]. Ph. D. dissertation (in Chinese), College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University. 肖栋, 李建平. 2007. 全球海表温度场中主要的年代际突变及其模态 [J].大气科学, 31 (5): 839-854. Xiao Dong, Li Jianping. 2007. Main decadal abrupt changes and decadal modes in global sea surface temperature field [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 31 (5): 839-854.
[14]
Xiao D, Li J P. 2007. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal abrupt changes of global atmosphere-ocean system in the 1970s [J]. J.Geophys. Res. (in Chinese), 112, D24S22, doi: 10. 1029/2007JD008956.
[15]
Xiao D, Li J P, Zhao P, 2012. Four-dimensional structures and physical process of the decadal abrupt changes of the northern extratropical ocean-atmosphere system in the 1980s [J]. Int. J. Climatol. (in Chinese),32: 983-994, doi:10.1002/joc.2326.
[16]
严中伟, 季劲钧, 叶笃正. 1990a. 60 年代北半球夏季气候跃变——I. 降水和温度变化 [J]. 中国科学 (B 辑), 20: 97-103. Yan Zhongwei, Ji Jinjun, Ye Duzheng. 1990a. Northern Hemispheric summer climatic jump in the 1960s, Part I—Rainfall and temperature [J]. Science in China Series B (in Chinese), 20: 97-103.
Yan Zhongwei, Ji Jinjun, Ye Duzheng. 1990b. Northern Hemispheric summer climatic jump in the 1960s, Part II—Sea level pressure and 500hPa height[J]. Science in China Series B (in Chinese), 20: 879-885.
[19]
严中伟. 1992. 60 年代北半球夏季气候跃变过程的初步分析 [J]. 大气科学, 16 (1): 111-119. Yan Zhongwei. 1992. A primary analysis of the process of the 1960s northern hemispheric summer climatic jump [J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 16 (1): 111-119.
[20]
颜鹏程, 侯威, 胡经国. 2012. 基于Logistic 模型的均值突变时间序列临界预警研究 [J]. 物理学报, 61 (18): 189202. Yan Pengcheng, Hou Wei, Hu Jingguo. 2012. The critical warning research of the mean time series mutations based on Logistic model [J]. Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 61 (18): 189202.
[21]
闫冠华, 颜鹏程, 侯威, 等. 2012. 一种基于Logistic 模型的过程性突变分析方法及其应用 [J]. 物理学报, 62 (7): 079202. Yan Guanhua, Yan Pengcheng, Hou Wei, et al. 2012. A method of abrupt change process analysis based on Logistic model and its applications [J]. Acta Phys. Sin.(in Chinese), 62 (7): 079202.
[22]
杨萍, 侯威, 封国林. 2008. 基于去趋势波动分析方法确定极端事件阈值 [J]. 物理学报, 57 (8): 5333-5342. Yang Ping, Hou Wei, Feng Guolin.2008. Determining the threshold of extreme events with detrended fluctuation analysis [J]. Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 57 (8): 5333-5342.
[23]
丁一汇, 张莉. 2008. 青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较 [J].大气科学, 32 (4): 794-805. Ding Yihui, Zhang Li. 2008. Intercomparison of the time for climate abrupt change between the Tibetan Plateau and other regions in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 32 (4): 794-805.
[24]
董文杰, 封国林, 龚志强, 等. 2005. 基于启发式分割算法的气候突变检测研究 [J]. 物理学报, 54 (11): 5494-5499. Dong Wenjie, Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang, et al. 2005. Abrupt climate change detection based on heuristic segmentation algorithm [J]. Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 54 (11): 5494-5499.
[25]
封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 等. 2001. 混沌系统中可预报性的研究 [J].物理学报, 50 (4): 606-611. Feng Guolin, Dai Xin’gang, Wang Aihui, et al. 2001. On numerical predictability in the chaos system [J]. Acta Phys.Sin. (in Chinese), 50 (4): 606-611.
[26]
封国林, 董文杰, 贾晓静, 等. 2002. 海—气振荡子中的极限环解 [J].物理学报, 51 (6): 1 181-1185. Feng Guolin, Dong Wenjie, Jia Xiaojing,et al. 2002. On the dynamics behaviour and instability evolution of air-sea Oscillator [J]. Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 51 (6): 1181-1185.
[27]
封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 等. 2006. 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1-227. Feng Guolin, Dong Wenjie, Gong Zhiqiang, et al. 2006. Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press 1-227.
封国林, 侯威, 支蓉, 等. 2011. 极端气候事件的检测、诊断和可预测性研究 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 350pp. Feng Guolin, Hou Wei, Zhi Rong, et al. 2011. Research on Detecting, Diagnosing and Predictability of Extreme Climate Events (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: Science Press,350pp.
[30]
符淙斌, 王强. 1992. 气候突变的定义和检测方法 [J]. 大气科学, 16 (4):482-493. Fu Congbin, Wang Qiang. 1992. The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change [J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica 16(4):482-493.
[31]
符淙斌, 马柱国. 2008. 全球变化与区域干旱化 [J]. 大气科学, 32 (4):752-760. Fu Congbin, Ma Zhuguo. 2008. Global change and regional aridification [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),32 (4): 752-760.
[32]
龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 等. 2009. 中国近58 年温度极端事件的区域特征及其与气候突变的联系 [J]. 物理学报, 58 (6): 4342-4352. Gong Zhiqiang, Wang Xiaojuan, Zhi Rong, et al. 2009. Regional characteristics of temperature changes in China during the past 58 years and its probable correlation with abrupt temperature change [J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 58 (6): 4342-4352.
[33]
Guttal V, Jayaprakash C. 2008. Changing skewness: An early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems [J]. Ecology Letters, 11: 450-460.
[34]
何文平, 吴琼, 邓北胜, 等. 2010. 一种基于重标极差方法的动力学结构突变检测新方法 [J]. 物理学报, 59 (11): 8264-8271. He Wenping,Wu Qiong, Deng Beisheng, et al. 2010. A new method of detecting abrupt dynamic change based rescaled range analysis [J]. Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 59 (11): 8264-8271.
[35]
侯威, 封国林, 董文杰. 2005. 基于复杂度分析logistic 映射和Lorenz 模型的研究 [J]. 物理学报, 54 (8): 3940-3946. Hou Wei, Feng Guolin,Dong Wenjie. 2005. Investigation about the Lorenz model and Logistic equation based on the complexity [J]. Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 54 (8):3940-3946.
[36]
侯威, 章大全, 周云, 等. 2011a. 一种确定极端事件阈值的新方法: 随机重排去趋势波动分析方法 [J]. 物理学报, 60 (10): 109202. Hou Wei,Zhang Daquan, Zhou Yun, et al. 2011a. Stochastic re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis: A new method to define the threshold of extreme event [J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 60 (10): 109202.
[37]
侯威, 章大全, 钱忠华, 等. 2011b. 基于随机重排去趋势波动分析的极端低温事件研究及其综合指标的建立 [J]. 物理学报, 60 (10): 109203.Hou Wei, Zhang Daquan, Qian Zhonghua, et al. 2011b. Extremely low temperature and its composite index based on stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis [J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 60(10): 109203.
[38]
Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bruno J F. 2010. The impact of climate change on the world’s marine ecosystems [J] Science, 328: 1523-1528.
[39]
黄嘉佑. 1990. 气象统计分析与预报方法 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社,28-30, 130-139. Huang Jiayou. 1990. Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Prediction (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 28-30, 130-139.
[40]
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change. 2007. Synthesis Report [M]. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[41]
季飞, 支蓉, 龚志强, 等. 2011. 全球环流系统关联性的时空演化特征研究 [J]. 气象学报, 69 (6): 1038-1045. Ji Fei, Zhi Rong, Gong Zhiqiang,et al. 2011. Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of correlations between the global circulation systems [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 69 (6): 1038-1045.
[42]
金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 等. 2012a. 不同趋势对滑动移除近似熵的影响[J]. 物理学报, 61 (6): 069201. Jin Hongmei, He Wenping, Hou Wei, et al. 2012a. Effects of different trends on moving cut data-approximate entropy [J]. Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 61 (6): 069201 (in Chinese) 金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 等. 2012b. 噪声对滑动移除近似熵的影响 [J].物理学报, 61 (12): 129202. Jin Hongmei, He Wenping, Zhang Wen, et al. 2012b. Effect of noises on moving cut data—Approximate entropy [J].Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese), 61 (12): 129202.
