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大气科学  2014 

预报异常极端高影响天气的“集合异常预报法”:以北京2012年7月21日特大暴雨为例

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13218

Keywords: 极端高影响天气,北京7.21大暴雨,社会影响矩阵,可预报性,标准化异常度,集合预报,集合异常预报法

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Abstract:

对罕见极端高影响天气,既使一个模式有能力预报它,其数值预报也至少有以下难点:一是有多大把握确定所预报的天气是极端事件?二是其具体的定时、定量、定点预报可靠吗?本文介绍了集合预报和气候资料相结合的“集合异常预报法”,并通过北京2012年7月21日(7.21)特大暴雨事件揭示出“集合异常预报法”和集合预报可以提供比单一模式预报更可靠和更准确的信息,从而可有效地缓解上述两大难点。作者建议中央气象台和其他有条件的台站可采用这种办法提高重大灾害性天气的预报能力。文中具体讨论了如下三方面:(1)标准化异常度(SA)的定义以及它同集合预报相结合提高对罕见极端高影响天气预报的可靠性,并由此可导出一个“社会影响矩阵”来定量地表达一个预报对社会的潜在影响;(2)利用集合预报,特别是多模式集合预报可以克服单一模式前后预报的跳跃性或不连续性问题,由此可延长实际可预报时效,如北京7.21事件超过100mm大暴雨的实际可预报时效提前了2天;(3)SA还有助于认识异常天气发生的原因:从SA的分布看,造成北京7.21大暴雨事件的短期天气尺度背景因素是从西北方向移来的冷锋和台风倒槽的相遇;从SA的演变看,该事件的中期大背景因素是在北京东北方向有阻塞高压发展并导致北京以西地区的低槽加强和发展(地面强冷空气堆积),在高纬度形成了一个高、低压系统相间的波列,发展并维持,同时诱导热带系统北进。

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