Chen H P, Sun J Q. 2009. How the "best" models project the future precipitation change in China[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(4):773-782.
[2]
Chen L, Frauenfeld O W. 2014. Surface air temperature changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in China simulated by 20 CMIP5 models[J]. J. Climate, 27(11):3920-3937.
[3]
Gleick P H, Adams R M, Amasino R M, et al. 2010. Climate change and the integrity of science[J]. Science, 328(5979):689-690.
[4]
Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, et al. 2012. Uncertainty in climate change projections:The role of internal variability[J]. Climate Dyn., 38(3-4):527-546.
[5]
Knutti R, Sedlá？ek J. 2013. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections[J]. Nature Climate Change, 3(4):369-373.
[6]
Lang X M, Sui Y. 2013. Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2℃ global warming[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12):1453-1461.
[7]
Li J F, Zhang Q, Chen Y D, et al. 2013. GCMs-based spatiotemporal evolution of climate extremes during the 21st century in China[J]. J.Geophys. Res., 118(19):11017-11035.
[8]
Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, et al. 2009. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2℃[J]. Nature, 458(7242):1158-1162.
[9]
Mitchell J F B, Wilson C A, Cunnington W M. 1987. On CO2 climate sensitivity and model dependence of results[J]. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor.Soc., 113(475):293-322.
[10]
Previdi M, 2010. Radiative feedbacks on global precipitation[J]. Environ.Res. Lett., 5:025211.
[11]
O\'Gorman P, Allan R, Byrne M, et al. 2012. Energetic constraints on precipitation under climate change[J]. Surv. Geophys., 33(3-4):585-608.
[12]
Schneider S H, Semenov S, Patwardhan A, et al. 2007. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change[M]//Parry M L,Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, et al. Climate Change 2007:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 976pp.
[13]
《第二次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 2011. 第二次气候变化国家评估报告[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 710pp. "Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change" Writing Committee. 2011.
[14]
Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Science Press, 710pp.
[15]
Sillmann J, Kharin V V, Zwiers F W, et al. 2013. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. Part 2. Future climate projections[J].J. Geophys. Res., 118(6):2473-2493.
[16]
Sui Y, Lang X M, Jiang D B. 2014. Time of emergence of climate signals over China under the RCP4.5 scenario[J]. Climatic Change, 125(2):265-276.
[17]
Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B. 2012. Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on CMIP5 model[J]. Adv. Climate Change Res., 3(4):179-185.
[18]
Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B, et al. 2013. Comparison of monthly temperature extremes simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models[J]. J. Climate, 26(19):7692-7707.
[19]
Zeng N, Ding Y H, Pan J H, et al. 2008. Climate change-The Chinese challenge[J]. Science, 319(5864):730-731.
[20]
张莉, 丁一汇, 吴统文, 等. 2013. CMIP5 模式对 21 世纪全球和中国年平均地表气温变化和2℃ 升温阈值的预估[J]. 气象学报, 71(6):1047-1060. Zhang L, Din Y H, Wu T W, et al. 2013. The 21st century annual mean surface air temperature change and the 2℃ warming threshold over the globe and China as projected by the CMIP5 models[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 71(6):1047-1060.
[21]
Zhang Y. 2012. Projections of 2.0℃ warming over the globe and China under RCP4.5[J]. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5:514-520.
[22]
Zhang X B, Alexander L, Hegerl G C, et al. 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change, 2(6):851-870.
[23]
Zhou T J, Yu R C. 2006. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models[J]. J. Climate,19(22):5843-5858.
[24]
周秀华, 肖子牛. 2014. 基于 CMIP5 资料的云南及周边地区未来 50 年气候预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 19(5):601-613, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13080. Zhou X H, Xiao Z N. 2014. Climate projection over Yunnan Province and the surrounding regions based on CMIP5 data[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese), 19(5):601-613,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13080.
[25]
Chen H P. 2013. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12):1462-1472.
[26]
Held I M, Soden B J. 2006. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming[J]. J. Climate, 19(21):5686-5699.
[27]
胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. 2014. CMIP5 全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J]. 大气科学, 38(5):924-938, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13197. Hu Q, Jiang D B, Fan G Z. 2014. Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 38(5):924-938, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13197.
[28]
IPCC. 2013. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M]//Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press, 89pp.
[29]
姜大膀, 富元海. 2012. 2℃ 全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估[J].大气科学, 36(2):234-246. Jiang D B, Fu Y H. 2012. Climate change over China with a 2℃ global warming[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 36(2):234-246.
[30]
Jiang D B, Zhang Y, Sun J Q. 2009. Ensemble projection of 1-3℃ warming in China[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 54(18):3326-3334.
[31]
金晨曦, 周天军. 2014. 参加 CMIP5 的四个中国气候模式模拟的东亚冬季风年际变率[J]. 大气科学, 38(3):453-468, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13180. Jin C X, Zhou T J. 2014. Analysis of the interannual variations of the East Asian winter monsoon simulation by four CMIP5 GCMs[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 38(3):453-468, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13180.
[32]
Joshi M, Sutton R, Lowe J, et al. 2011. Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2℃ above pre-industrial levels[J]. Nature Climate Change, 1(8):407-412.
[33]
Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93(4):485-498.
[34]
The World Bank. 2012. Turn down the heat:Why a 4℃ warmer world must be avoided[R]. Washington DC:The World Bank, 84pp.
[35]
Xu C H, Xu Y. 2012. The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 5(6):527-533.
