Dai A G. 2011. Drought under global warming:A review[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change, 2 (1):45-65.
[2]
丁一汇, 胡国权. 2003. 1998年中国大洪水时期的水汽收支研究[J]. 气象学报, 61 (2):129-145. Ding Yihui, Hu Guoquan. 2003. A study on water vapor budget over China during the 1998 severe flood periods[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 61 (2):129-145.
[3]
丁一汇, 刘芸芸. 2008. 亚洲-太平洋季风区的遥相关研究[J]. 气象学报, 66 (5):670-682. Ding Yihui, Liu Yunyun. 2008. A study of the teleconnection in the Asian-Pacific monsoon region[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 66 (5):670-682.
[4]
封国林, 侯威, 支蓉, 等. 2012a. 极端气候事件的检测、诊断与可预测性研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 18-97. Feng Guolin, Hou Wei, Zhi Rong, et al. 2012a. Detection, Diagnosis and Predictability Research of Extreme Climate Events (in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 18-97.
[5]
梁建茵, 林元弼. 1992. 南海海温异常对七月份中国气候的影响及数值试验[J]. 热带气象, 8 (2):134-141. Liang Jianyin, Lin Yuanbi. 1992. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies for the South China Sea on July climate in China and their numerical experiments[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 8 (2):134-141.
[6]
Litchfield J T Jr, Wilcoxon F. 1955. Rank correlation method[J]. Analytic Chemistry, 27 (2):299-300.
[7]
陆渝蓉, 高国栋. 1983. 中国大气中的水汽平均输送[J]. 高原气象, 2 (4):34-47. Lu Yurong, Gao Guodong. 1983. The mean transfer of water-vapour in the atmosphere over China[J]. Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese), 2 (4):34-47.
[8]
马柱国, 任小波. 2007. 1951-2006年中国区域干旱化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 3 (4):195-201. Ma Zhuguo, Ren Xiaobo. 2007. Drying trend over China from 1951 to 2006[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 3 (4):195-201.
[9]
Mann H B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend[J]. Econometrica, 13:245-259.
[10]
McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. Boston, MA:American Meteorological Society, 179-183.
[11]
McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. 1995. Drought monitoring with multiple time scales[C]//Ninth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, 233-236.
[12]
施能, 古文保. 1993. 大气环流异常分析中使用合成方法的一个问题[J]. 气象, 19 (9):32-34. Shi Neng, Gu Wenbao. 1993. A note on composite analysis of atmospheric circulation anomalies[J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 19 (9):32-34.
[13]
施能, 陈家其, 屠其璞. 1995. 中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J]. 气象学报, 53 (4):431-439. Shi Neng, Chen Jiaqi, Tu Qipu. 1995. 4-phase climate change features in the last 100 years over China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 53 (4):431-439.
[14]
施能, 朱乾根, 吴彬贵. 1996. 近40年东亚夏季风及我国夏季大尺度天气气候异常[J]. 大气科学, 20 (5):575-583. Shi Neng, Zhu Qian\'gen, Wu Bingui. 1996. The East Asian summer monsoon in relation to summer large scale weather-climate anomaly in China for last 40 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (Scientia Atmospherica Sinica), 20 (5):575-583.
[15]
施能, 朱乾根. 1996. 北半球大气环流特征量的长期趋势及年代际变化[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 19 (3):283-289. Shi Neng, Zhu Qian\'gen. 1996. Secular trends and interdecadal variation of characteristic quantities of atmospheric circulations for northern winter[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology (in Chinese), 19 (3):283-289.
[16]
Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. 2008. Improvements to NOAA\'s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. J. Climate, 21:2283-2296.
[17]
孙淑清, 孙柏民. 1995. 东亚冬季风环流异常与中国江淮流域夏季旱涝天气的关系[J]. 气象学报, 53 (4):440-450. Sun Shuqing, Sun Bomin. 1995. The relationship between the anomalous winter monsoon circulation over East Asia and summer drought/flooding in the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 53 (4):440-450.
[18]
孙淑清, 马淑杰. 2003. 海温异常对东亚夏季风及长江流域降水影响的分析及数值实验[J]. 大气科学, 27 (1):36-52. Sun Shuqing, Ma Shujie. 2003. Analysis and numerical experiment on the relationship between the 1998 summer monsoon activities and SSTA in tropical regions[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 27 (1):36-52.
[19]
陶诗言, 徐淑英. 1962. 夏季江淮流域持久旱涝现象的环流特征[J]. 气象学报, 32 (1):1-10. Tao Shiyan, Xu Shuying. 1962. Some aspects of the circulation during the periods of the persistent drought and flood in Yang——tze and Huaihe valleys in summer[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 32 (1):1-10.
[20]
陶诗言, 朱福康. 1964. 夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J]. 气象学报, 34 (4):385-396. Tao Shiyan, Zhu Fukang. 1964. The 100-mb flow patterns in southern Asia in summer and its relation to the advance and retreat of the West-Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the Far East[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 34 (4):385-396.
[21]
陶诗言, 张庆云, 张顺利. 1998. 1998年长江流域洪涝灾害的气候背景和大尺度环流条件[J]. 气候与环境研究, 3 (4):290-298. Tao Shiyan, Zhang Qingyun, Zhang Shunli. 1998. The great floods in the Changjiang River valley in 1998[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 3 (4):290-298.
[22]
Thom H C S. 1966. Some Methods of Climatological Analysis[M]. Geneva, Switzerland:Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, 53 pp.
[23]
王蕾, 张人禾. 2006. 不同区域海温异常对中国夏季旱涝影响的诊断研究和预测试验[J]. 大气科学, 30 (6):1147-1159. Wang Lei, Zhang Renhe. 2006. Diagnostic researches and forecasting experiments of the various regional sea surface temperature anomaly on summer precipitation in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 30 (6):1147-1159.
[24]
王遵娅, 丁一汇. 2008. 夏季长江中下游旱涝年季节内振荡气候特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 19 (6):710-715. Wang Zunya, Ding Yihui. 2008. Climatic features of intraseasonal oscillations of summer rainfalls over mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the flood and drought years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 19 (6):710-715.
[25]
Wang Y Q, Zhou L. 2005. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 32:L09707, doi:10. 1029/2005GL022574.
[26]
魏凤英. 2007. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 气象出版社, 63-66. Wei Fengying. 2007. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology (in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 63-66.
[27]
Xiao D, Li J P. 2007. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal abrupt changes of global atmosphere-ocean system in the 1970s[J]. J. Geophys. Res.:Atmos., 112:D24S22, doi:10.1029/2007JD008956.
[28]
肖子牛, 孙绩华, 李崇银. 2000. El Ni?o 期间印度洋海温异常对亚洲气候的影响[J]. 大气科学, 24 (4):461-469. Xiao Ziniu, Sun Jihua, Li Chongyin. 2000. Influence of the Indian Ocean SSTA on Asian climate during an ENSO period[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 24 (4):461-469.
[29]
颜鹏程, 封国林, 侯威, 等. 2014. 500 hPa温度场时间序列的年代际突变过程统计特征[J]. 大气科学, 38 (5):861-873. Yan Pengcheng, Feng Guolin, Hou Wei, et al. 2014. Statistical characteristics on decadal abrupt change process of time sequence in 500 hPa temperature field[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 38 (5):861-873.
[30]
叶笃正, 黄荣辉. 1991. 我国长江黄河两流域旱涝规律成因与预测研究的进展、成果与问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 6 (4):24-29. Ye Duzheng, Huang Ronghui. 1991. Advances, results and problems of the project "investigation on laws, causes and predictions of droughts and floods in the Yellow River valley and the Yangtze River valley of China"[J]. Advance in Earth Sciences (in Chinese), 6 (4):24-29.
[31]
张庆云, 陶诗言. 1998. 亚洲中高纬度环流对东亚夏季降水的影响[J]. 气象学报, 56 (2):199-211. Zhang Qingyun, Tao Shiyan. 1998. Influence of Asian mid-high latitude circulation on East Asian summer rainfall[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 56 (2):199-211.
[32]
张庆云, 陶诗言. 1999. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压北跳及异常的研究[J]. 气象学报, 57 (5):539-548. Zhang Qingyun, Tao Shiyan. 1999. The study of the sudden northward jump of the subtropical high over the western Pacific[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 57 (5):539-548.
[33]
张庆云, 卫捷, 陶诗言. 2003a. 近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 8 (3):307-318. Zhang Qingyun, Wei Jie, Tao Shiyan. 2003a. The decadal and interannual variations of drought in the northern China and association with the circulations[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 8 (3):307-318.
[34]
张庆云, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭. 2003b. 东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J]. 气象学报, 61 (4):559-568. Zhang Qingyun, Tao Shiyan, Chen Lieting. 2003b. The inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 62 (4):559-568.
[35]
张琼, 吴国雄. 2001. 长江流域大范围旱涝与南亚高压的关系[J]. 气象学报, 9 (5):569-577. Zhang Qiong, Wu Guoxiong. 2001. The large area flood and drought over Yangtze River valley and its relation to the South Asia high[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 9 (5):569-577.
[36]
张琼, 刘平, 吴国雄. 2003. 印度洋和南海海温与长江中下游旱涝[J]. 大气科学, 27 (6):992-1006. Zhang Qiong, Liu Ping, Wu Guoxiong. 2003. The relationship between the flood and drought over the lower reach of the Yangtze River valley and the SST over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 27 (6):992-1006.
[37]
Zhang Q, Xu C Y, Zhang Z, et al. 2008. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960-2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation[J]. J. Hydrol., 353 (3-4):215-227.
[38]
张人禾, 武炳义, 赵平, 等. 2008. 中国东部夏季气候20世纪80年代后期的年代际转型及其可能成因[J]. 气象学报, 66 (5):697-706. Zhang Renhe, Wu Bingyi, Zhao Ping, et al. 2008. The decadal shift of the summer climate in the late 1980s over East China and its possible causes[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 66 (5):697-706.
[39]
章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 等. 2010. 近50年中国降水及温度变化在干旱形成中的影响[J]. 物理学报, 59 (1):655-663. Zhang Daquan, Zhang Lu, Yang Jie, et al. 2010. The impact of temperature and precipitation variation on drought in China in last 50 years[J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 59 (1):655-663.
[40]
周晓霞, 丁一汇, 王盘兴. 2008. 夏季亚洲季风区的水汽输送及其对中国降水的影响[J]. 气象学报, 66 (1):59-70. Zhou Xiaoxia, Ding Yihui, Wang Panxing. 2008. Moisture transport in Asian monsoon region and its relationship with summer precipitation in China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 61 (1):59-70.
[41]
朱乾根, 林锦瑞, 寿绍文, 等. 2000. 天气学原理和方法[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 350-359. Zhu Qian\'gen, Lin Jinrui, Shou Shaowen, et al. 2000. Principles and Methods of Weather (in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 350-359.
[42]
Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, et al. 2003. Abrupt climate change[J]. Science, 299 (5615):2005-2010.
[43]
Byun H R, Wilhite D A. 1999. Objective quantification of drought severity and duration[J]. J. Climate, 12 (9):2747-2756.
[44]
封国林, 杨涵洧, 张世轩, 等. 2012b. 2011年春末夏初长江中下游地区旱涝急转成因初探[J]. 大气科学, 36 (5):1009-1026. Feng Guolin, Yang Hanwei, Zhang Shixuan, et al. 2012b. A preliminary research on the reason of a sharp turn from drought to flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in late spring and early summer of 2011[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 36 (5):1009-1026.
[45]
符淙斌, 王强. 1992. 气候突变的定义和检测方法[J]. 大气科学, 16 (4):482-493. Fu Congbin, Wang Qiang. 1992. The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (Scientia Atmospherica Sinica) (in Chinese), 16 (4):482-493.
[46]
Gong D Y, Wang S W. 2000. Severe summer rainfall in China associated with enhanced global warming[J]. Climate Research, 16:51-59.
[47]
Gong D Y, Ho C H. 2002. Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (10):78-1-78-4.
[48]
Graham N E. 1994. Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s:Observations and model results[J]. Climate Dyn., 10 (3):135-162.
[49]
Heim R R Jr. 2002. A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83:1149-1165.
[50]
Hirschi M, Seneviratne S I, Alexandrov V, et al. 2011. Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe[J]. Nature Geoscience, 4 (1):17-21.
[51]
侯威, 杨萍, 封国林. 2008. 中国极端干旱事件的年代际变化及其成因[J]. 物理学报, 57 (6):3932-3940. Hou Wei, Yang Ping, Feng Guolin. 2008. The decadal variability and its cause of the extreme drought in China[J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 57 (6):3932-3940.
[52]
Huang Jianping, Zhang Wu, Zuo Jinqing, et al. 2008. An overview of the semi-arid climate and environment research observatory over the Loess Plateau[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 25 (6):906-921.
[53]
黄士松, 汤明敏. 1987. 论东亚夏季风体系的结构[J]. 气象科学, 7 (3):1-16. Huang Shisong, Tang Mingmin. 1987. On the structure of the summer monsoon regime of East Asia[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 7 (3):1-16.
[54]
Huschke R E. 1959. Glossary of Meteorology[M]. Boston, MA:American Meteorological Society, 638pp.
[55]
Ji Fei, Wu Zhaohua, Huang Jianping, et al. 2014. Evolution of land surface air temperature trend[J]. Nature Climate Change, 4:462-466, doi:10.1038/nclimate2223.
[56]
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 (3):437-471.
[57]
Kogan F N. 1997. Global drought watch from space[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 (4):621-636.
[58]
Lana X, Serra C, Burgue?o A. 2001. Patterns of monthly rainfall shortage and excess in terms of the standardized precipitation index for Catalonia (NE Spain)[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 21 (13):1669-1691.
[59]
李新周, 刘晓东, 马柱国. 2004. 近百年来全球主要干旱区的干旱化特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 21 (2):97-103. Li Xinzhou, Liu Xiaodong, Ma Zhuguo. 2004. Analysis on the drought characteristics in the main arid regions in the world since recent hundred-odd years[J]. Arid Zone Research (in Chinese), 21 (2):97-103.