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大气科学  2015 

欧亚北部冬季增雪“影响”我国夏季气候异常的机理研究:欧洲冬季增雪的重要作用

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.14163

Keywords: 物理机制 冬季增雪 欧洲中纬区 陆—气相互作用 季节演变

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Abstract:

在作者前期研究(穆松宁和周广庆, 2012)的基础之上, 本文主要利用了EOF分析和相关分析, 对欧亚北部冬季新增雪盖面积(Total Fresh Snow Extent, 记为TFSE)与我国夏季气候异常之间"隔季相关"的机理进行了更进一步的探讨, 主要目的在于寻找TFSE气候效应的冬季增雪面积关键区。结果表明, 虽然欧洲中纬冬季增雪面积(文中均以TFSE-1表示)与我国夏季气候异常的关系不很显著, 但其变化维系了上述"隔季相关"的物理途径, 其变化对TFSE的气候效应而言起关键作用, 但是, 亚洲中纬冬季增雪面积(文中均以TFSE-2表示)的贡献尚不清楚;另外, 对TFSE的气候效应而言, 起作用的实际上是欧亚中纬冬季增雪面积(文中均以TFSE-1-2表示), 其不但与我国夏季气候异常具有更显著的"隔季相关", 而且这种"隔季相关"还具有和TFSE非常相似的、但更为清晰的物理途径, 因此, 在气候预测的意义上, TFSE-1-2可替代TFSE

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